Recently, the overall favorable factors of the urea market are relatively many. For example, India's tender has broken a new high. On the evening of November 19, India announced its bid for 1812,000 tons of urea. There are many rumors in the market. There are three versions of China's bid, 930,000 tons, 860,000 tons and 715,000 tons. Although the Indian market has not yet been announced, according to the statistics of China Fertilizer Network, As of Friday, China's main ports had only 495,000 tons of storage. According to the above three winning bids, urea still needs to continue to supply cargo to the ports in the later period, that is, the domestic supply quantity may be reduced in the later period. On the other hand, the overall start-up rate of domestic enterprises is in a slow downward stage, according to China's chemical fertilizer. As of Friday, the overall start-up rate of urea industry in China was 49.0%. The daily output of urea in China dropped below 120,000 tons. Whether it is the recent staggered peak limit in Shandong, Shanxi and Lianghe, or the natural gas limit, urea will start or continue to go downward in the later period. To sum up the above two points, urea diuretic support is good. Relatively strong, late supply or will be tight, quotations or signs of upward growth, but why do the downstream at this time still wait and see, not to purchase?

First, there is no need to rush to buy. Domestic urea grass-roots purchasing peak season will wait until next Spring Festival or even after Lantern Festival. At this stage, some distributors say that they still have some low-price sources. Because of the relatively high price this year, the purchasing power of grass-roots market is relatively low, and the stock is sufficient. Although there is still a certain demand gap in the later period, they still have some problems. At present, the supply of urea in hand is not tense. It is not necessary to purchase urea at the current high price. It is not necessary to make a decision until the policy of urea enterprises is clear and the inventory consumption reaches a certain amount.

Secondly, "dare not" take the goods. Although the urea market has been booming recently, the business transaction price is relatively low. The urea factory turnover in Shandong Lianghe and other places is only slightly higher than 2,000 yuan (ton price, the same below). The urea factory turnover in Shanxi falls below 2,000 yuan, while that in Inner Mongolia is about 1,850 yuan. Because of the strong market sentiment, the downstream industrial compound fertilizer plant is affected by the situation. The impact of insurance inspection is limited, and the demand for raw materials is relatively low; however, in recent years, the agricultural market has realized some "magic tricks" in the loss of winter storage. The sooner the purchase is, the higher the possibility of loss will be. In addition, the quotation will gradually decline, and the expectation of distributors will be even worse, fearing that the price will be lower than that in spring sales. Go to the market, not dare to buy for the time being.

Finally, "don't want" to get the goods. With the development of fertilizer market in recent years, more and more new fertilizers are replacing traditional fertilizers in the current market. Although urea demand is increasing, the grassroots market share is slowly decreasing. Some distributors say that because the use of some new fertilizers is more home-made than urea and the fertilizer efficiency is less different, they are right now. High-priced urea has little interest.

In summary, although the urea market has improved a lot recently, the downstream still maintains a certain wait-and-see mentality. It is expected that the purchasing volume may rise after the market becomes clear in the later period.