Time is fast, it has entered the end of 2018 in a twinkling of an eye. In December, the temperature in Northeast China has gradually cooled, and the recent winter storage market of Composite Fertilizer is just like the scene. The market has entered the cold winter. After a month of rigidity, the winter storage quotation of Composite Fertilizer in December will gradually become clear, then the winter storage price of Composite Fertilizer will reach. Where is the future?

Firstly, the price of urea has undergone a sudden change, and the cost of compound fertilizer is insufficient to support. Throughout November, the urea market gave the impression that the prices of small granular urea in Shandong continued to rise to about 2150-2200 yuan/ton, and began to hover back and forth in early November, just like falling leaves. In November, the urea market was supposed to get support or price rise again with the help of India's bidding and gas restriction. But contrary to expectations, the promotion of India's bidding is not significant. On the contrary, the price of the printed bid has brought adverse effects on domestic prices. Gas restriction is not as serious as expected for the start of urea enterprises. At the end of November, the news came from the chemical industry that crude oil had fallen sharply. The risk of sanctions imposed by the United States on Iran was not so serious. On the contrary, it was the fierce reflection of the major oil producing countries, which made the oil supply in the original market surplus. On the 14th, crude oil in the United States plunged by 8%, making it the biggest price reduction in three years, and domestic crude oil prices were also unavoidable. Avoid. So there is speculation in the market that if crude oil prices fall sharply, then urea prices will encounter Waterloo. In the critical period of winter storage, the impact on downstream purchasing of compound fertilizer is self-evident.

Secondly, although there is surplus demand space, the quotation of compound fertilizer is not optimistic. As of December, the amount of winter reserve fertilizer in the lower reaches is only about 3-40% of the total amount in previous years. Especially this year, the price of corn has risen sharply and the subsidy of soybeans has increased. Then the planting area will not decrease significantly next year. There is still a large surplus demand space in the later period. However, in the stalemate between upstream and downstream in November, we found that high prices are really difficult. To be accepted downstream, if you want to move, compound fertilizer enterprises can only make concessions in price. Of course, at the end of November, a few enterprises have begun to introduce policies, or have steadily declined or introduced explosives. In the face of demand, compound fertilizer enterprises have to bow their heads. Although the pressure of high-price raw materials is increasing, prices are still steadily declining. Give Way.

Thirdly, traditional fertilizers have entered the bottleneck, and compound fertilizers urgently need to break through the deadlock of effective reform. At this year's Phosphorus and Compound Fertilizer Conference, we can see that compared with previous years, the popularity is cool, but soon after the Chengdu Plant Protection Conference is very lively, why? The new fertilizer is very attractive at Chengdu Plant Protection Fair, and even the customers in Northeast China rush to visit. Whether the two give a profound inspiration to the traditional compound fertilizer enterprises, the industrial upgrading and transformation of the traditional fertilizer industry is imminent and unstoppable. If we still stick to the tradition unchanged, we will shuffle the market of chemical fertilizer. In the process, I am afraid I will encounter the risk of being eliminated first.

Finally, in the situation of low chemical and hypertrophic environment, compound fertilizer enterprises can only find their own breakthroughs, or rely on their own raw material advantages, or transformation to make new fertilizers and so on. In short, the pain is still ongoing, unbreakable, looking forward to a better market for compound fertilizer next year.