In December, the cold climate of winter comes with it. Like the weather, the current market of winter storage in Hefei is particularly "cold". Following the large-scale reserve of some distributors in the early stage of winter storage, the peak season of the market has not appeared until now. Although the price of compound fertilizer is rising steadily, it has not greatly boosted the confidence of the downstream.

Compared with the previous winter storage market, taking 45% sulfur-based general-purpose products as an example, the current mainstream ex-factory price has risen to more than 2400 yuan/ton, or more than 2500 yuan/ton. Such a high price has deterred many distributors. However, in the face of the large demand in Northeast and North China in the spring of next year, some distributors have to pick up goods at high prices, which is precisely the case, and the risk is greatly increased. At present, the focus of dealers'attention is not how much the price rises, but whether they can make money next spring. At present, whether they can make money or not may exist, but it is certain that "big profits" and "blood loss" are very difficult to happen.

First, the raw material market is unpredictable. This year's fertilizer market is about to enter the tail-sweeping stage. Summarizing the overall situation throughout the year can be said to be complex, especially in urea. At present, labeling and gas restriction have not really boosted the urea market effectively. The urea market, which was originally operating at a high level, has been weakening in some areas since this week. The fluctuation of raw materials affects the cost of compound fertilizer. Taking 45% sulfur-based general-purpose products as an example, the cost of pure raw materials has reached about 2250 yuan/ton. Once the price of raw materials falls sharply and the cost support decreases, the price of compound fertilizer will inevitably incline downward, and vice versa. Therefore, when the sale season of compound fertilizer is next spring, the price of compound fertilizer will be declining. The price range should be judged according to the specific trend of raw materials.

Secondly, the surplus demand needs to be determined. Since the start of the winter storage market, although it has not shown the climax of picking up goods, some downstream areas have begun to pay money in an orderly and appropriate manner. Earlier, we heard that the winter storage and pre-harvest prices in Northeast China and North China are at a relatively low level, and distributors are still acceptable. Most of them have reserved some goods, but the specific quantity is not enough. It is well known, more or less, but the gap still exists; in addition, another "negative" effect of high fertilizer prices is that low-cost fertilizers are flooding the market. Considering profit constraints, some grass-roots units have to choose such fertilizers, resulting in price chaos in the terminal market, and specific demand and supply quantity are relatively high. Fuzzy, so the amount of surplus demand next spring is crucial.

Finally, when will the environmental protection limit land? Due to the aggravation of haze around Beijing, Tianjin and Hebei, a regional heavy pollution weather process occurred in Beijing, Tianjin and Hebei and its surrounding areas from 23 to 26 November. According to the actual situation, various regions started corresponding level early warning, implemented various emission reduction measures, and mitigated the impact of heavy pollution weather. Thus, today's environmental inspection is no longer a "one-size-fits-all", no longer a concentrated shutdown, shutdown, shutdown and other simple and crude acts. Relative to environmental protection, the long-rumored "gas limitation" tide has not yet arrived, and only some areas have short-term supply tension. Next, the specific development trend of environmental protection and gas limitation has not yet landed, and the impact on enterprises is not yet known. Therefore, the supply situation next spring deserves attention.

In summary, the recent price of compound fertilizer is indeed at a relatively high level, and the downstream purchasing psychology has been hit. Distributors who take goods at a high price may have some risks. However, according to the development of raw materials and supply and demand, it is expected that the price of compound fertilizer will be difficult to form "soaring" and "soaring" in the spring of next year. The trend of "big fall".