The winter of 2018 is really a bit "cold" for fertilizers. In fact, as early as August, most of the major distributors in Northeast China started, but up to now they are still in the initial stage. It is known that the winter storage fertilizer reserves are generally less than half of the normal process in previous years, and the vacancy is quite obvious. The warehouse is still empty and time is running out. What is this about? What happens next?

One of the reasons is that high fertilizer prices fluctuate. Recently, urea prices have fallen sharply, resulting in a drop in the price of small nitrogen fertilizers, while ammonium prices have fallen for a few days. In the past half months, the prices of urea and monoammonium have fallen by about 100 yuan. This makes the market worry about the price of compound fertilizers. Compound fertilizers with poor receipts and difficult pricing may need to redesign their prices and policies. As a result, diammonium is difficult to rise, and the bearish expectation of potassium chloride, which has a strong upward trend, is also growing. However, the fertilizer market has always been buying up and not buying down, fearing high prices ahead, and now worrying about falling again, so it is difficult to improve the enthusiasm of purchasing for a while and a half.

The second reason is that it is difficult to sell grain without money. Previously, grain prices were low and reluctant to sell, but later, grain prices rose and were even more reluctant to sell, so the grass-roots units were not rich at present. The "reconciliation" between China and the United States led to the breeding of short-term sentiment in grain prices. The lowering of wheat minimum protection price and the expectation that rice protection price would also be lowered in the latter part of the year had made grass-roots minds hazy. Maybe we should sell grain quickly, and have money, but the money was "less". In addition, the prospect of next year is confused. Combined with the first reason above, the winter storage of chemical fertilizer falls into a vicious circle.

The third reason is lack of information and bad mentality. In the fertilizer market, there has always been a feature of asymmetric information. Distributors and farmers are often in a disadvantaged position. Food prices have been unsatisfactory, so their nerves are often "fragile". There are different performances in different periods, and the current grassroots awareness is "high fertility, unsafe", so it is difficult to carry out winter storage late.

The third reason is the main point of this article. Because the circle of friends of the fertilizer man has been blown up by two video events recently.

First of all, a video of a tall tower being blasted. The sound of the collapse of a tall tower with the word "Alliance" is really shocking. At first glance, it seems that the huge thing in the fertilizer industry really can't work anymore! uuuuuuuuuuu So many people began to sympathize, saying that the fertilizer market was too difficult, even the traditional giants collapsed. But soon the alliance manufacturer came out to refute the rumor, the original family was just orderly relocation in accordance with the requirements of their superiors.

If the first video rumor event reflects the fragility of market nerves, then the second video is not enough, or will directly affect the progress of local winter storage. It happened in Changchun, Jilin Province. In the video, many distributors pulled banners in front of the manufacturer's door and shouted "Return my hard-earned money!" Confronted with the staff of the manufacturer. After verification, the cause of this incident is that the person in charge of Hongfeng Fertilizer Co., Ltd. in Jilin lost contact after receiving the advance payment from the distributor. At present, the case has been dealt with by the police and is still under investigation.

It is known that the Hongfeng Fertilizer Industry of Jilin was established in 2008, and the annual production capacity of various fertilizers such as compound fertilizers reaches 300,000 tons, which occupies a larger share in the local market. Video incidents not only hurt the interests of relevant distributors, but also seriously affected the confidence of other distributors in winter storage, undoubtedly to make the difficult winter storage come to a worse.

Nevertheless, please don't really dare to store in winter because of the rumors of "falling tower" and the snow of "running". Now it is December, only two months away from the Spring Festival, leaving little time for winter storage. It is true that many distributors say that "every year is short but no year is short", but things are always changing. At present, the stock in the downstream is very limited. The upstream factories have high cost and low start-up rate. Most of them do not have a large inventory. However, the later start-up, import and export, transportation and other factors are full of uncertainty. Whether fertilizer supply in the spring will be possible or not. Guarantee is not an absolute guarantee.

Moreover, it is a fact that "every year says that there is a shortage but no shortage in any year". So is the fact that "every year says that there is a high shortage but no need in any year"? If the downstream remains unchanged, then the upstream factories are expected to stop production in a large area soon. When the spring market starts in the form of spot after the Spring Festival, the time is short and the task is heavy. The price of fertilizer is likely to show extreme performance, or to soar. Of course, it may continue to decline. But objectively speaking, the possibility of a big drop is not very big.

Fertilizer market is not good recently, prices are falling, but it may be the best time to purchase winter storage. The vast number of grass-roots friends should pay more attention to all aspects of the fertilizer market news, should not hesitate to start, but also pay attention to cooperation with large enterprises with good reputation to ensure capital security, and more communication to strive for better winter storage policy.