Each fertilizer has its own meaning of existence, and the relationship with upstream and downstream is complementary and mutually restrictive. After the Phosphorus and Compound Fertilizer Conference, each compound fertilizer enterprise will introduce the winter storage policy to promote the downstream distributors and farmers to pay money. But now December, the winter storage policy is still unclear. Many enterprises have not held distributors'conference. It is known that a few enterprises holding the conference have not issued distributors' satisfactory policies. According to the distributors'reflection, the prices of the enterprises holding the conference are too high and the distribution is too high. Businessmen do not accept it, will continue to wait and see, plus the distance from the real fertilizer time is longer, so there is no plan for a large amount of money. In August, distributors who did not pay for purchasing only a small amount of money to ensure that they have goods in hand, the terminal market is very light, especially in the northeastern region of the fertilizer market as the weather is "frozen". The grass-roots market is not satisfied with the price level of compound fertilizer. Not purchasing directly affects the situation of compound fertilizer enterprises. At the same time, the upstream raw material market also affects the heart of compound fertilizer. The price of raw materials determines the cost of compound fertilizer. The trend of raw material market also affects the supply and demand of compound fertilizer.
Firstly, I would like to talk about "Red Man" urea in the fertilizer industry. Recently, the urea market has been tepid. The Indian tender in November and the "limited gas" storm that came out early did not bring about a revival of urea market. Many gas-head urea enterprises did not start to stop production and limit production at the time previously stipulated. Most enterprises have delayed their production time. The international demand for urea is not ideal, the domestic market is also relatively light, the demand for urea agriculture is light in winter, and the urea market in most areas is priceless. Because of the high price of urea and constant fluctuation, distributors have not made plans for Winter Wheat Fertilization next year, and the industrial demand is not ideal. Many provinces and municipalities'environmental protection "looking back" causes the overall inadequate start of compound fertilizer, only 4. As a result, the purchasing of raw urea is slow. Recently, the price of urea in Linyi has dropped to 2000 yuan/ton or a little lower, reaching the psychological price of some factories and traders. The purchasing situation has improved slightly, but the quantity is still small.
is followed by ammonium, a raw material with a high frequency of attention this year. Cost can really be one of the keywords in the market of Monoammonium this year. This year, the cost of ammonium is relatively high, the price of phosphate rock rises irregularly, and sulfur rises sharply due to the soaring exchange rate of the US dollar. The price of liquid ammonia keeps high along with urea market and its own supply. This makes the sales price of Monoammonium high this year, but the actual profit is low, which also makes it possible for monoammonium not to decline significantly. After October, the demand for ammonium has been relatively light, the new single transaction is not much, and the conference on phosphate and compound fertilizer has not been significantly boosted. It is reported that 55% of the actual ammonium powder produced by Hubei Dachang has also dropped to 2250-2300 yuan/ton. The compound fertilizer enterprises in Northeast China have purchased ammonium ahead of schedule. Probably they have to wait until after the Spring Festival to replenish their warehouses. In recent years, although inquiries for compound mast plants in Shandong and other places have increased, the real operation is less, and they will mainly wait and see.
Finally, although the amount of potassium fertilizer used as raw material is not much, the attention is not reduced. Since the signing of the big import contract of potassium chloride in September, people in the industry have paid more attention to when the big contract goods will arrive at port this year. The price of potassium chloride in salt lakes has changed frequently in recent months. In December, the arrival price of 60% crystal potassium chloride in salt lakes was 2420 yuan/ton, and that of 62% white potassium in ports was around 2600 yuan. Although the compound fertilizer enterprises pay more attention to potassium fertilizer, the real purchasing situation is not optimistic. On the one hand, the forward inventory is still in existence or the previous orders are still in execution. Many enterprises are waiting for the arrival of large contract goods. On the other hand, the compound fertilizer itself is not high and the consumption of potassium fertilizer is slow, so the demand for potassium fertilizer will remain tepid in the short term.
In conclusion, apart from the standoff between compound fertilizer and upstream raw materials or downstream demand, diammonium is also struggling with the downstream market. No matter which side wins, each side will suffer more or less losses. Looking forward to the awakening of winter storage market, bringing warm sunshine in winter. It is expected that the winter storage market will become clearer in mid-late December.