The price of urea has fallen for more than half a month since November 25, with a sharp drop of more than 100 yuan/ton. Some of them have discussed a slight drop in actual prices and others have declined steadily or steadily.

On December 3, Zhongfei net trolley got the surprising low price news of 1820 yuan/ton from Shanxi low-end factory. I thought that the price of urea could be further explored. On December 4, a factory in Shandong and a factory in Hebei rebounded. On May 6, the quotation of a factory in Jiangsu rose continuously. On May 7, one factory in Shanxi rose 20 yuan/ton, and on August 8, another factory in Shandong also rose. A large factory in Shanxi was below 1850 yuan/ton, which has not been for a while. Receipt; however, urea manufacturers'quotations, which have risen since the 9th day, have basically fallen back to the origin.

Urea is rising again! Represents that the price has reached the bottom?

From the point of view of the manufacturers, the direct price reduction is due to the small number of orders received. The actual or steady decline is due to the slight increase of orders in the earlier period, but the new orders really can not keep up with it. December 3, Shanxi low-end factory quotation 1850 yuan/ton, can not help but remind people of this year's lowest value: in early August, Shanxi low-end factory quotation 1750 yuan/ton; at present, it is really the overall urea market price to the bottom, but it seems that the bottom has not yet reached the stage! Why do you say that?

On the one hand, from the point of view of gas limitation landing and environmental protection requirements, the urea start-up rate of Shandong Lianghe Shanxi urea factory is not too high. The start-up rate fell below 50% at the end of November and rose slightly to 52% in the second week of December. The daily output is only 120,000 tons. After December 20, three or four gas-head urea enterprises will stop production. This rebound of urea price has laid a small foundation. Basics.

On the other hand, December has been traditionally the peak season for the production of light storage fertilizer in compound fertilizer enterprises, especially in Northeast China. In this respect, there should be a slightly large and concentrated delivery of urea. On December 4, the price of delivery in Linyi increased by 10-30 yuan/ton compared with the previous day. On December 6, it snowed in Shanxi and Shanxi rivers. The orange early warning of fog and haze weather has been lifted. According to theory, the start-up rate of compound fertilizer enterprises should continue to increase. It can also bring a small pull to urea prices.

However, the fact is that the upstream gas urea producers are basically ready to stop production at any time. In the first two months, even some gas urea producers have stored part of their own urea. The upstream gas urea producers may not receive too many orders. As a result, prices have fallen again and again since late November, from darkness to brightness. Urea manufacturers have to reduce their inventories; downstream large agricultural companies or compound fertilizer manufacturers have been appropriately procured, as a result, large agricultural companies have slightly lost money in the export of goods.

_Compound fertilizer manufacturers have poor collection of their finished products, which may be half or less than half of the current receipts in the same period last year. As of December 7, the average start-up rate of compound mast plants has dropped by nearly three percentage points to only 37.6% (Linyi's receipt price for urea has dropped from 1990-2000 yuan/ton on December 7 to only 1970 yuan/ton on December 10). It is a rare phenomenon in history.

For the time being, the supply is slightly larger than the demand, and the high-end price decline seems inevitable until late December. Whether the low-end can rise depends on the sales situation of large companies such as Zhonghua Zhongnong after this low-price pickup, and whether there is a small peak after the price stalemate of urea and the receiving of urea by compound fertilizer enterprises.

After that, I have to say that the export is lovely and hateful. Within half a month, the FOB price of China's small granular urea has dropped by about 20 US dollars/ton (the FOB price of China's small granular urea is 297 US dollars/ton, the exchange rate is 6.87, and the VAT is 10%, which is only 1920 yuan/ton when China sends urea to Yantai Port and other major ports). For India's last tender order, China is entering. Supply line, and India's new tender time is unknown, may be January, the price should be unsupported, depending on whether the number of support.

Finally, the distressing overall economic environment is depressed, crude oil has fallen sharply twice in recent years, methanol, melamine, liquid ammonia and other related products upstream of urea are unavoidable, plywood plants and power plants downstream of urea are also affected, and their receipts are slightly less than the same period last year.

In short, exports should not be good in the short term. After the domestic price is low, stable and high, there seems to be a small drop, and then there will be a real price increase. After all, compound fertilizer enterprises will take urea one after another, just in time. After all, there will be a certain gap in spring demand under the low social inventory, but the late spring cold after warm winter may make fertilizer market next spring. Come late and end fast.