What do you think of mining and non-mining industry?
Time：2019-01-24 Read：555second
Seeing the title of the article, many people will think that this paper mainly deals with the situation of urea industry and agriculture. So first, the author briefly talks about the recent situation of urea. Urea prices have rebounded since India released its tender information last week. The urea delivery price in Linyi, Shandong Province, has risen from the lowest in the previous period of 1870-1880 yuan/ton to 1900-1930 yuan/ton. In other areas, the total price has risen by less than 50 yuan/ton. Some enterprises and traders are reluctant to sell urea. Some large companies express their intention to find opportunities to purchase urea before the Spring Festival. In agriculture, distributors in Henan and other places are also interested in purchasing thousands of tons, but they have not been purchased because of the subsequent closure of the factory. However, the urea market has fallen into a slump again since this week. More attention should be paid to the bid opening situation in India later today. At present, the price of urea in Linyi has fallen back to 1900-1910 yuan/ton. Some insiders are not optimistic about this Indian tender. They believe that urea demand will not improve much before the Spring Festival. Whether urea is to be taken or not depends on the demand side.
What about monoammonium? What is the industry's view on whether to adopt or not?
On Monday, the market of ammonium continued to be light, and some enterprises'false high quotations continued to decline. At present, 55% of powdered ammonium in Hubei is actually discharged from factories at 2150-2200 yuan/ton, and the acceptance rate of small factories is 2100 yuan/ton or even lower. In Yunnan, 55% of powdered ammonium is discharged from factories at 2050-2080 yuan/ton. In Sichuan, 55% of powdered ammonium is discharged from factories at 2100 yuan/ton. The actual transaction should be discussed. In Henan, 55% of powdered ammonium is discharged from factories at 2100 yuan Near 2100-2120 yuan/ton, Guizhou Dachang's 55% ammonium powder ex-factory quotation is only 2100 yuan/ton. Enterprise prices are gradually lowering, and some small factories not only stop production because of environmental pressure, but also because of their own costs, demand and other pressures to make it difficult to resume production.
The author recently interviewed some ammonium factories, large traders and compound mast factories to discuss the ammonium market before the Spring Festival.
_ammonium plant. Industry insiders believe that the recovery of ammonium Market near mid-November has been postponed to mid-December to restore warehouses before the Spring Festival. They expect the recovery of ammonium demand, but this year's market is so unsatisfactory. Some ammonium factories think that since the fourth quarter of 2018, the unsatisfactory situation is normal. There is no fertilizer market for a whole year. The light end of the year may lead to the accumulation of ammonium. However, with the increasing inventory of enterprises, the pressure is increasing, there are fewer orders to be issued, new orders are not good, enterprises can not save the arrival of the decline of ammonium, the confidence of ammonium enterprises has declined, the situation of bottoming has been introduced frequently, but the limit of production, bottoming and even continuous price reduction have not attracted orders, and very few transactions have been concluded. At present, ammonium enterprises are pessimistic about future market expectations. They believe that there should be no significant signs of warming up before the Spring Festival. Even with the increase of inquiries, there are fewer actual operations and the possibility of further reduction of false and high quotations. However, the actual transaction has approached the cost, especially the low-end price of small factories should not be significantly reduced.
_Compound fertilizer enterprises. The author learns from many purchasers of compound fertilizer enterprises that the intention of purchasing monoammonium before the Spring Festival is not great. Some enterprises have not consumed monoammonium at different price levels in the early period of purchasing. There are also several large factories that purchase the guarantee orders one after another. Before the Spring Festival, enterprises will only make up the orders on demand, but the quantity is not large or a little large enough to guarantee the bottom. Composite fertilizer enterprises have no improvement in their own terminal sales, only about 40% of the construction started before the Spring Festival, and there are still plans to stop production, so that the consumption of raw materials is slow. In addition, the recent market atmosphere of ammonium raw materials is not ideal. Sulphur has been mainly reduced in recent weeks. The decrease of sulphur in ports and domestic ports is slightly larger. At present, particle sulphur in ports such as the Yangtze River Port has dropped to 1075 yuan/ton, and Puguang Wanzhou Port has dropped 60 yuan/ton to 117 yuan/ton this week. The price of liquid ammonia has fallen rapidly. The purchase price of Hubei enterprises has dropped from 3400 yuan/ton last week to 3050 yuan/ton this week. The ups and downs of compound fertilizer enterprises have put pressure on the enterprises themselves. Although there are many inquiries before the Spring Festival, the real demand for ammonium should be less.
Traders. Some traders all over the country said that they had not purchased ammonium in the near future. Most of the goods sold were pre-guarantee goods. Even if there were pre-holiday replenishment orders, they would only consider the source of guarantee goods. Most traders are not confident enough about pre-festival ammonium. In the near future, only some urea potassium fertilizers will be imported and exported. There are fewer substantive purchases of one ammonium, and they also hold a wait-and-see attitude towards the post-festival ammonium market.
In summary, ammonium before the festival should be difficult to get rid of the light demand, but insiders said that there is no risk of price reduction. In the near future, only high prices will be appropriately lowered. It also does not rule out that individual enterprises continue to reduce low-end prices for the sake of capital recovery and prolong the bottoming period.
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