Urea's mood and mood are changing downstream
Time：2019-01-24 Read：590second
Since India announced the tender, the domestic urea market has been "chaotic" and the process of opening bids is entangled. Firstly, enterprises have made full use of the momentum to rebound. As a result, yesterday, they announced the lowest landing price of 295.8 U.S. dollars per ton on the East coast, which is about 281 U.S. dollars per ton offshore, equivalent to the price of China's main ports only about 1780 yuan per ton, and the urea market is feared to be "back to its original shape". Zhang said that urea is a "pig hoof" in the chemical fertilizer industry. It is temperamental. It is not only the two party market of industrial agriculture, but also liquid ammonia. At present, urea manufacturers in China are planning to increase prices more firmly, while grass-roots markets are shaking their heads, expressing insufficient confidence in urea trend. Some grass-roots units even express "cool" and wholesale prices are still falling. Considering the impact of transportation, inventory and capital before the Spring Festival, agricultural merchants have reserved a certain amount of goods in the early stage, and can replenish warehouses appropriately in the later stage. Grass-roots market with a worried mood to wait and see, it is better to rest assured that the New Year, with the use of picking has reduced operational risk.
_From the perspective of contradiction or game between supply and demand of urea enterprises, it seems that urea market is still difficult to get rid of weak fluctuations. Firstly, the construction is slowly rising, considering from the aspects of storage and transportation, the co-production enterprises will gradually shift the production focus to urea; and some leading enterprises will have the possibility of re-production; secondly, although the price of the printed label is not dominant, the final number of urea bids in China is still undetermined, and it may be advisable for some manufacturers to win a "open door red" campaign in 2019, whether it is possible to do their best to do so. Third, the overall demand of the domestic market is not optimistic. Although some major distributors who reserve urea in advance have the bottom gas, the number is limited. With the recovery of urea enterprises, enterprises may have the risk of increasing inventory, so there will be the risk of falling back in price. The pressure of sales will be aggravated by the increase of terminal buying or not buying or dropping. Later, with the use of mining is still favored by the industry. From the above factors, the urea market before the Spring Festival still can not lift big waves, shipments and prices have a trend of pressure, many enterprises will reproduce the operation of price reduction and purchase orders.
_This s not, "love and kill" urea, liquid ammonia market is the focus of industry attention before the Spring Festival, since urea trend is not optimistic, manufacturers expect the weak liquid ammonia can be reversed. However, the success of the reversal depends on the game between supply and demand. If the effect of urea is not taken into account for the time being, liquid ammonia enterprises should try to maintain full-load production before the Spring Festival to prepare for the raw material reserve during the next Spring Festival; and before the Spring Festival, the main purpose of ammonia production is to keep the inventory low or even zero, so as to "make room" for the production of the Spring Festival; however, the progress of demand remains to be observed. Hefei started at a low level, and according to market feedback, some compound fertilizer enterprises will reduce their start-up during the Spring Festival, reduce the trend of raw material procurement, the overall demand of industry is weak, and affected by environmental protection inspection, some chemical enterprises using ammonia will reduce start-up, reduce the amount of ammonia used; in addition, transportation during the Spring Festival will be limited, first, some automobiles will be shut down, second, high-speed vehicles for dangerous chemicals. Limited line, liquid ammonia manufacturers will continue to increase the pressure of purchasing goods; some of the main production areas of phosphate fertilizer, small nitrogen fertilizer and other enterprises have poor sales, slow progress, high cost pressure, production enthusiasm is not high, liquid ammonia purchasing volume is reduced again. Finally, the direct impact of urea on liquid ammonia is discussed. The final result of India's bidding is not given. Considering only the price equivalent to about 1780 yuan/ton of our port, such as the main urea factory quotation in Shandong Province is about 1880-1900 yuan/ton, the export price is not advantageous, and the total amount of successful tender in China is undetermined, the variables are too large, and the trend of urea market is still worrying, then the price of urea will probably return. Reducing the number of exports can ensure some advantages. In this way, some enterprises will adjust their production focus to liquid ammonia to ensure that the price of urea in the domestic market is not too low. With the increase of the supply of liquid ammonia in the market and the special factors in the special period of the Spring Festival, there is room for the price of liquid ammonia to fall.
_Generally speaking, the labeling has not brought support to the domestic urea market for the time being. Under the market predicament of slow increase in supply and visible decrease in demand, the urea market is still expected to be weak. Under the uncertainty of urea mood, not only distributors and grassroots units should bear their joys and sorrows, but also liquid ammonia should be involved.
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