How to predict the fluctuation of urea?
Time：2019-01-26 Read：578second
At the end of January, the chemical fertilizer market started to make waves again, especially for the late trend of urea price. There are divergent opinions: some people say that urea enterprises have more orders and may be out of stock in the later period, while quotations have risen sharply; some people say that the demand space is still large in the later period; others say that the atmosphere of urea speculation is strong, so who has the advantage of favorable urea market in the later period? How should compound fertilizer enterprises predict?
First of all, urea enterprises have more than 100,000 pending orders? It remains to be verified. It is rumored that urea enterprises in Inner Mongolia, Shanxi and Hebei have recently received a large number of orders, with individual pending orders exceeding 100,000 tons. According to the true survey of China Chemical Fertilizer Network, it is suspected that the lack of data is exaggerated, while the number of enterprises with real pending orders more than 50,000 to 60,000 is very small, not to mention more than 100,000 tons, and the proportion of Federal Reserve Federal Reserve sales forms is also small. Bigger, therefore, compound fertilizer enterprises still need to clear their eyes, see the facts, prudently purchase raw materials, and downstream distributors should not be anxious because of blind panic, but recently urea prices in Shanxi and Shandong have shown little signs of rebound.
Secondly, the demand space of urea is large in the later stage. For urea enterprises, spring demand is nothing more than wheat topdressing. Compared with maize fertilizer demand, the demand for wheat topdressing is not large. According to the research and development of China Chemical Fertilizer Network, the demand for wheat topdressing in the whole country may be reduced this year. The main reason is that the price of wheat is not high and has been affected by disasters year after year, the income of farmers is very poor, and the input in chemical fertilizer will be reduced. In the period of wheat planting, the application of base fertilizer can be carried out, and the period of topdressing is not so concerned, so overall, the demand for spring wheat topdressing is reduced, the specific reduction is not easy to calculate, so the demand space for urea in the later period is not optimistic, and the market needs to be cautious in the long run.
Thirdly, the start-up rate of urea enterprises is gradually rising. In order to ensure the demand for fertilizer in spring, gas-head urea enterprises are gradually resuming construction. According to the above two points, we can see that the demand of urea market is not as good as we imagined. Therefore, once the rate of start-up in the later period rises, the supply of urea will increase. So it is a dire factor for the spring market, so whether the urea spring market will rebound substantially remains to be seen. Discussion.
Generally speaking, urea quotations with more orders in the short term or now rebound slightly, but there is still the possibility of changes in the spring market, so the compound fertilizer enterprises will be very cautious in purchasing raw materials. After all, some of the high-priced urea raw materials in the early stage of the compound fertilizer enterprises still remain, and the market demand space after the Spring Festival is not optimistic, because so far the downstream markets in Northeast China are not optimistic. Fertilizer reserves in the field have reached about 40% - 50%. Although there is room for demand in the later stage, the possibility of reducing demand is not excluded. So we need to be cautious and optimistic in the spring market.
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