Pre-Festival Feicheng downturn when diammonium Page
Time：2019-01-28 Read：572second
Although urea quotation started to rebound in recent years, some enterprises in Shandong and other industries quoted a slight increase of 10 yuan (ton price, the same below), but the market is still generally weakening, even the recent price of diammonium with long-term stable quotation has declined to a certain extent. Some enterprises in Hubei area have 64% of diammonium in Heilongjiang Province, where the low-end purchase price is about 2920 yuan, while the discounted ex-factory price is only about 2650 yuan. As the Spring Festival is approaching, from the point of view of the pre-festival shipping link, even in the near future, fertilizers such as diammonium will be sent after the Spring Festival. The price reduction of some enterprises is not purely for the purpose of capital recovery. The main reason is that some traders are pessimistic about the late market of diammonium. Now the market is mostly hanging upside down for sale, while the pre-factory settlement is relatively high. In order to alleviate the pressure of their own contractors, individual enterprises have to take partial concessions. According to past practice, after the Lantern Festival, some downstream markets began to enter the grass-roots sales chain. Because of the high price of diammonium this year, downstream procurement is prudent. At present, the market arrival is only less than 50%. Can you match the goods when diammonium starts in the spring sales season? Where is the price of diammonium in the late market?
First of all, can the spring market be out of stock? According to statistics, the apparent consumption of diammonium in spring market is about 4.5 million tons. Since mid-October, the consumption of agricultural market has basically entered a stagnation period. With the domestic monthly output of 1.2 million tons and the export volume, it is estimated that by May this year, the total domestic supply will be about 4 million tons. Although there is a possibility of shortage of diammonium, due to the limited audience of diammonium and the existence of substitutability, the shortage of diammonium should be considered. Not too big.
Price forecast, although apparently supply or slightly tense, but now the domestic and foreign diammonium market is temporarily in the off-season, and there is a possibility of shortage in Phnom Penh later period, but the possibility of price rise is low; on the other hand, it is also because the low-priced source of goods flowed into the market in the early period, and even does not rule out the disruption of the market by industrial raw material diammonium as last year, and distributors are not optimistic about diammonium. During the period, the ability to resist risks is weak, and the psychology of selling goods is strong.
In summary, it is not difficult to predict the market of diammonium in spring this year. Individual areas of diammonium may lead to price increases because of shortage. However, due to low-price sources and low mentality of traders, it is expected that the general price should be mainly slowly declining, and the pre-holiday diammonium market, whether in transaction or shipment, will not be very good.
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