Ouch, I'm going! How did urea rise?
Time：2019-01-29 Read：545second
As we all know, the price of urea has risen again as the Spring Festival approaches. From January 25 to now, some urea manufacturers in Shandong Lianghe and Jiangsu have increased their quotations by 20-30 yuan/ton, and some urea manufacturers in Hebei and Shaanxi have even suspended receiving orders.
Ouch, I'm going! What the hell is this going on? Arguably near the Spring Festival, the automobile transportation will slow down one after another, and the train is also a little nervous. Of course, the train will be smoother until the Spring Festival holiday for seven days. Urea manufacturers should have lowered the price and absorbed orders, or got more orders waiting to be issued, and then study how to deliver the goods is the main thing. But how did it go up? Can it last?
First, the short-term transport tension is only for those urea factories which are far away from the outside. For those urea factories in Shandong, Jiangsu and Anhui, they have the opportunity to take advantage of it. They are also in front of them, like urea factories in Shanxi and Inner Mongolia, to reduce prices, but they are not much, most of the price reduction. How can the customers of these factories in Shandong and other places be more willing to take delivery, and more smoothly? Sales? Naturally, the reason is that Shandong and other manufacturers'quotations have been raised to better meet the needs.
_Reason 2: At present, only a week away from the Spring Festival, it should be difficult to attract too many lists, but the winter wheat green fertilizer is indeed a rigid demand, some distributors may have to take time to drag goods, of course, small and medium-sized distributors have always stressed before the small edition, small and medium-sized distributors can set aside sufficient transport time to pick up goods, now, if you look at it, as you all. Unexpectedly, urea manufacturers are waiting for more, real orders or intentions, as long as there is a little more to be issued, price increases in recent days are the best policy.
The third reason is that although the total number of successful bids is 515,000 tons and the number of successful bids for urea in China may be zero, most of the 150,000 tons of Chinese cargo from the east coast and 60,000 tons of Chinese cargo from the west coast have changed their certificates of origin and re-exported cargo sources. However, some urea manufacturers in Shandong and Hebei have indeed been collecting more than 10,000 tons of urea in recent days, no matter what. Whether it's going to India, other countries or the southern market, it's also contributing to the inventory reduction before the Spring Festival. A manager of a urea manufacturer in Hebei mentioned that the current zero inventory status of the manufacturer has not been a grand occasion for several years before the Spring Festival, at this time, when does not rise?
Fourth, although it is confirmed that the Southwest Gas Head Urea Factory will resume production before the Spring Festival, it is only a psychological shock for the time being. After all, it has not really produced products. It is less than a week, more than half a month, from the time of delivery to the smooth delivery. Considering the previous days and the previous week, the Southwest Urea Factory has digested the stock through the price decline, and its pending delivery is also better. Ordos gas head urea manufacturers will not resume production until late February, and will not delay the price increase for the time being.
Can the price increase last?
It is difficult to sustain. It is likely to be inflated and will be tested after the festival. In the first few reasons, it is purely common sense to deduce that the price increase is reasonable, but not enough.
Firstly, some urea enterprises in Shandong, Lianghe, Jiangsu and Anhui provinces still haven't received enough orders for the Spring Festival. Especially, a factory in Shandong and a gas head factory in Henan may resume production in early February. The factories with a long distance of outward shipment also consider that a large number of fires can be transported in seven days during the Spring Festival. They may all accept orders secretly. If the situation is slightly worse, at the beginning of January, some urea factories will produce a few urea plants. Home prices may be lowered to attract fire orders, or to attract orders from neighboring dealers who can carry their own cars.
Secondly, winter wheat topdressing is just needed, but the change of fertilizer habit is a factor that has to be leveed. There are fewer and fewer areas where winter wheat reverts to green manure. It is difficult to form a large-scale winter wheat topdressing period after the Spring Festival when fertilizer is applied at the end of autumn. In the past three years, crop planting profit has been slight or even lost, even in the price of Maize in 2019. And the planting area is expected to be better, but farmers should not invest too much in land. Moreover, near the Spring Festival holidays, plywood enterprises have mostly stopped production, the start-up rate of compound fertilizer enterprises has begun to decline, and the demand for urea is beyond mention.
Thirdly, an article in the minor edition mentioned that urea manufacturers need to study carefully if they have too much to send. If the logistics is smooth and the goods are concentrated on arrival, this advantage will easily turn into a bad one.
Fourthly, it is a foregone conclusion that the starting rate will rise again. Domestic daily urea production will increase from 110,000 tons at present to 130,000 tons around the first day of January. By the end of February, daily urea production will even rebound to 145,000 tons. Considering that the inventory of some gas-head urea enterprises which have stopped production since the beginning of December has not been exhausted, besides the basic consumption of raw material urea taken by compound fertilizer enterprises, there are not many plywood and power plants to receive, and the urea goods taken by distributors at all levels have neither done much export nor sold to farmers.
In short, for the time being, the price of urea should rise after the Spring Festival, but it is estimated that it will not last for more than half a month. After all, the logistics should be relatively smooth. We should pay attention to the quantity and price of urea on the platforms.
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