The first export of chemical fertilizers is slightly depressed.
Time：2019-02-04 Read：560second
According to China Customs statistics, the total export volume of diammonium in China reached 7.468 million tons in 2018. Last year, exports continued to exert strength. According to comprehensive fertilizer export records, diammonium exports once again occupied Shantou this year, of which India accounted for 40.7%, Pakistan. 19.5%, Vietnam 12.1%; while domestic 2018 annual physical output is only more than 14 million tons, and the export volume is more than half. According to this supply and demand background, the price of diammonium in domestic sales is not even in full swing. The appearance of goods has been blocked, but since the start of mid-November last year, although the diammonium market has been raised, the overall volume of goods has been tepid, and the traders in the early Spring Festival, in addition to some of the pre-paid traders, took the right amount of goods. The enthusiasm of the middle and lower reaches dealers is not too high. For example, the 64% diammonium enterprises in Heilongjiang have the intention to get the price between 3000-3050 yuan (ton price, the same below), but there are still few goods in the downstream. The analysis has the following points:
First of all, the chemical fertilizer environment is poor. Although the price of urea in the near future has been temporarily stable, but the new orders in the market have been sold, most of the factory orders have been executed until the Spring Festival. At this stage, the price is stable and only supports the operation of the agent, and the compound fertilizer is Because the downstream goods are slower, although the start-up has been running at a low level, the new single transaction is relatively poor. Under the influence of the two major fertilizers, the diammonium is relatively small, but the downstream is diammonium. The reserve adopts a conservative attitude. Diammonium is only a part of large traders to purchase in moderation. Even if there is a shortage of goods, it can be replaced by compound fertilizer, and the downstream application of compound fertilizer is much higher than that of diammonium.
Second, downstream funding is limited. It has been learned from the market that it is quite difficult for the fertilizer industry to make loans at the bank. The grain sales at the grassroots level are relatively poor, and the dealers have relatively small amounts of money. Although the diammonium market has a certain share in the northeast and northwest markets, Due to the limited profit of the operation of diammonium by traders, even if there is surplus money in the hands, the purchase of compound fertilizer and urea will be limited. The priority of diammonium will be lower, so the current supply in the grassroots market is relatively small.
Finally, panic is dominant. At present, some large traders are obsessed with the post-diammonium late market. As early as the end of last year, they have started to sell at low prices. In recent years, the price of diammonium in the off-season has risen, and the price of the peak season has occurred from time to time. The diammonium raw material used for blending fertilizer flows into the agricultural market, and the downstream confidence in diammonium is high.
In summary, some grassroots concerns about the market, even if the supply of diammonium is too small, but the overall price is difficult to show signs of rising, but supply tension is also the current fact. It is expected that after the start of grassroots procurement, individual markets may be tight due to supply. This has led to a slight increase in price, but the expected magnitude should be small.
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