Last year, this fat is still looking forward to the spring breeze.
Time：2019-02-10 Read：598second
I want to write something good for the New Year! However, good is only in the mind, there are always so many bad things in reality... This potash, last spring is the market that is not prosperous in the peak season, and this sad reminder is more than last year? From the New Year's Day to the Spring Festival, the price of potash has slowly slipped down. In this spring, the spring breeze can also scrape the potash here? Pan Panpan! It is better to count. Today, let's calculate this potassium sulfate first.
Potassium sulphate can be divided into three major sections from the production process, namely the traditional Mannheim potassium sulphate, the later-supplied water-salt system potassium sulphate and the “unknown” ammonium sulphate method. At present, potassium sulfate method mainly exists in individual downstream compound fertilizer manufacturers, the quantity is small and the content is low, so it is mainly used by manufacturers and rarely circulated in the market. It is called “unknown”, generally it is Ignore it. But for Mannheim manufacturers, it may become a threat to be considered in the future.
The competitiveness of Mannheim potassium sulfate and potassium sulfate in the water-salt system has become increasingly fierce in recent years. Because in terms of production capacity, a single Mannheim or a water-salt system of potassium sulphate can almost be used alone. According to the statistics of China Fertilizer Network, the apparent consumption of potassium sulfate in 2018 is about 3.6 million tons, and by the end of 2018 Mannheim has an effective capacity of about 3 million tons, and the total salt water system has a total capacity of about 3.7 million tons of potassium sulfate. Potassium itself accounts for nearly half of the overall water and salt system capacity.
From the historical data of China Fertilizer Network 2016-2018 for the past three years, the apparent consumption of domestic potassium sulfate (not statistical ammonium sulfate method) is about 4.4 million tons, about 4.1 million tons and about 3.6 million tons; In the year, the production of potassium sulfate in the water and salt system was 2.45 million tons, 2.43 million tons and 2.31 million tons, respectively, accounting for 55-56% of the total output of the year; the output of Mannheim potassium sulfate was 1.95 million tons and 1.94 million respectively. In terms of tons and 1.89 million tons, the average operating rate is 65%, 62% and 65% respectively according to the current production capacity (the capacity in 2018 is reduced by 200,000 tons compared with 2017).
A popular phrase a few years ago, "Be prepared for a hard time in 2019." This also applies in the fertilizer market. First, the price of food is not ideal, the enthusiasm for planting is affected, and the second is that “friction” is still going on, and it has repeatedly provoked people to “disturb”. Third, the economic environment is not good, funds are tightening, and policies are fluctuating. Therefore, whether or not we will continue to weaken, first assume that the consumption of potassium sulphate will stabilize at around 3.6 million tons in 2019, supplemented by historical experience, so that if 2019 potassium sulphate wants to gradually improve, the inventory will be returned by the end of the year. To the normal level, the result of "yield-export volume" should be no more than 3.2 million tons.
The export volume of potassium sulphate has been only 10,000 tons in the past few years, and it can reach about 200,000 tons if it is small. In 2019, the export tariffs on fertilizers will be fully liberalized. How much breakthrough will the export volume of potassium sulfate be based on 200,000 tons? I am afraid this is a long way to go, because the international market does not seem to be very expected now, and the original demand capacity is not very large, coupled with the international new production capacity. Assuming that we are working hard and working hard, we can eventually export to 400,000 tons, so the total output should be 3.6 million tons.
Then, if the production of potassium sulphate is stable in 2019, the stock of potassium sulphate may have to record to the million-ton level at the end of the year; if the total output is controlled at 3.6 million tons, then according to the above-mentioned production of water-salt system In terms of the ratio, it will be compressed to 2 million tons and 1.6 million tons respectively, and the annual average operating rate of Mannheim potassium sulfate industry will be 60-from the previous three years. 65% is reduced to 55%.
The above various calculations are actually not so much "reason", just pure projections, but I believe that the author has assumed a more optimistic situation. In fact, the pressure may be bigger than expected, because the export is expected, but the quantity is not very good, because the price competition of Mannheim potassium sulfate and potassium salt potassium sulfate will be upgraded again after the potassium chloride is lowered. Because there are still manufacturers ready to expand production, and new projects are running. However, the inventory of potassium sulphate carried over in 2015 is also quite large, but although the market in 2016 is still not good enough, the inventory at the end of the year has decreased significantly, and it is precisely because of the low price that demand has risen; All kinds of calculations seem scary, but after all, it is assumed that the assumption is that the possibility of change cannot be ruled out. All in all, this time the "calculation" is not to harm the manufacturers to lose confidence and motivation, but to remind them to rush to avoid possible risks. It is only beginning in 2019, and the policy of this year is also carefully considered!
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