Both are counting on urea to rise, and what should urea expect?
Time：2019-02-11 Read：587second
As we all know, before and after the Spring Festival holiday, the fertilizer market was in a stalemate. The small nitrogen fertilizer ammonium chloride ammonium sulfate was driven by urea, and the diammonium-ammonium was waiting for the urea to pull. The compound fertilizer is expected to be sold smoothly, and the industry is counting on the festival. After the urea rose, bringing a good spring scene, but what should I expect?
I hope that the demand for wheat to return to green fertilizer can be a bit more, and the longer it lasts, the better. As we all know, the demand for urea in winter wheat growing areas is shifting from south to north. Although many places have reduced the amount of urea applied, some areas have no longer applied for greening, but there are still areas of diligence and areas where urea is needed. I hope that this part of the demand can be a little bit more, can continue, and hope to create a possibility for urea.
Counting on the second, industrial demand can be restored to recover more. Now, I hope that there will be no major changes in environmental protection. After the holiday, the start-up of compound fertilizer enterprises will quickly pick up and make up for the shortage of finished products that started low before the holiday. Plywood companies stopped production too early, and started working normally or started earlier. It seems that this point is more reliable. After all, the gap of spring fertilizer is still in some areas. Compound fertilizer enterprises either digest finished product inventory or need to take urea to hurry to produce. It is expected that this demand of compound fertilizer enterprises and plywood enterprises will increase urea. Create a necessary condition.
It is hoped that the international urea price will stabilize or even rebound as soon as possible, which will drive China's urea export quantity to a little more, or at least avoid importing urea to impact the urea market in China's coastal areas. There is no hope in this regard. As of February 7 this Friday, the international urea price has dropped by 5-17 US dollars / ton. It is worth noting that the Iranian urea FOB price fell below 200 US dollars, according to the current exchange rate of 6.74. Considering the complexity of the port and the cost of packaging, the price of the main ports such as Yantai Port in China is only 1635-1785 yuan, plus the freight rate, which is the market price. From the current mainstream factory in the northern factory, 1900 yuan / ton, Imported urea is likely to hit the urea market in China's coastal areas.
I hope that the urea operating rate will rise, but I hope that logistics will not recover so quickly, and do not let all kinds of low-cost sources hit the market. After the Spring Festival holiday, the daily output of urea should be more than 140,000 tons, and 145,000 tons is also possible. However, after the holiday, there is still a short period of peak spring transportation. Logistics should not recover very quickly. This is still a little bit of hope. .
Count on five, whether it is a large provincial farmer, or a small and medium-sized dealers, try to master the shipping rhythm, do not wait for the market to do a good job to start dumping goods, very unfavorable to the development of the urea market.
In short, for the time being, the urea price should rise after the Spring Festival holiday, but it is estimated that it is difficult to last for more than half a month. After all, if the economic situation is normal, the logistics should be smoother; in the long run, there will be a slight gap in the basic compound fertilizer and urea. If the dealer chooses the compound fertilizer to get more priority, then the price of the compound fertilizer will not be good. If the choice of urea is more than the arrival of the goods, then the urea price will not be good, and the specific amount of urea on the platform will be paid attention to. The price of the goods.
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