The compound fertilizer market is about to take off, but there is an important premise...
Time：2019-02-15 Read：593second
On the first day of the first month of the first month, in the blessing of “starting the work”, most fertilizer companies ushered in the first day of work. Before the Spring Festival, the compound fertilizer market was like a dead water, and the company’s operating rate dropped to about 33%. So, can the compound fertilizer market survive after the Spring Festival?
First look at the positive factors of the compound fertilizer market?
First, spring demand is on the verge. After the Spring Festival, the demand for wheat greening fertilizer in some areas, such as the Central Plains, is about to start. The demand for fertilizer in Shandong and Lianghe areas is beginning to show up. Recently, the demand for fertilizer for urea, high-nitrogen compound fertilizer and ammonium chloride extruded granules is gradually increasing. After the increase, the demand for spring corn in the northeast region will gradually start. Although the wait-and-see mood is relatively strong in the downstream, the locals gradually entered the real season of fertilizer demand, and the demand for compound fertilizer market is expected to pick up.
Second, the amount of social stocks is small. According to the incomplete survey of China's fertilizer network, it is found that due to the frequent changes in fertilizer prices and the slow return of dealer funds, the amount of downstream fertilizer is not large before the Spring Festival, and the average amount of fertilizer in the downstream of Northeast China only accounts for the total amount in previous years. About 4-5 percent, the northeast arrival volume is relatively large, while the central and southern regions have less fertilizer, and there is still a gap in fertilizer demand in all later stages.
Third, the possibility of a collective decline in raw materials in the short term is unlikely. Although the recent urea has been affected by the sharp recovery of the operating rate, the quotation has declined slightly, but there is still room for demand release. Therefore, the short-term urea price is unlikely to fall sharply. In addition, the overall trend of phosphate fertilizer and potash fertilizer is also weak and stable, but Ammonium enterprises are stagnant and stable, and the volume of potassium chloride is uncertain, so it is unlikely that the short-term collective will fall sharply.
Secondly, what are the negative factors in the compound fertilizer market?
First, the need for fertilizer is less necessary. For many years, fertilizers have been emphasizing the reduction in demand for fertilizers, and the fact is true. The prices of agricultural products are not high, the enthusiasm for planting at the grassroots level is getting worse and worse, the investment in fertilizers is bound to decrease or shift to low-end products, and soybeans or corn are planted. The multiple-choice questions are still difficult to make decisions, so hesitating at the grassroots level is also excusable. Although the market has a gap in fertilizer use in the future, the reduction in demand has limited the amount of the gap to some extent.
Second, the operating rate after the holiday has gradually picked up. After the Spring Festival, as the work of various enterprises returns to normal, the operating rate of compound fertilizer will gradually pick up, and some compound fertilizer enterprises reserve some stocks before the year, and still have to wait for digestion later. The increase in supply will inevitably lead to fierce market competition.
Third, the long-term price trend of raw materials is not optimistic. In the face of the spring market demand is about to start, in the short term, raw material prices are slowly falling in the stalemate, but in the long run it is not optimistic, especially the long-term trend of urea is not optimistic, to some extent restricting the fertilizer in the downstream of compound fertilizer. Confidence, phosphate and potash also do not see the possibility of price recovery, so the overall support for the cost of compound fertilizer is not good.
After the 15th day of the first month, the downstream demand will gradually start. Recently, we have already seen the downstream inquiries, and the dealers have started the sale. After another ten days and a half, when the downstream inventory has a certain degree of digestion, the compound fertilizer enterprise Inevitably, there will be another wave of demand, but in view of the negative factors, if we want to revitalize the spring market of compound fertilizer, it is the primary premise to give certain concessions on the price. We will wait and see.
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