Although there is no "red man" of urea and other fertilizers in the audience of monoammonium, it also has its unique important position as a raw material for the production of compound fertilizers. There has always been the saying that "every eight disasters" means that 2018 is also a very worrying year for the fertilizer market. One ammonium has not finished well at the end of 2018. One ammonium began to decline in late October last year. By the end of December, the price of one ammonium was reduced by about 150 yuan compared with that at the end of October. There is little left for enterprises to be issued, and the stock pressure is gradually increasing. It was expected that the demand of one ammonium will be in January 2019. Before the Spring Festival, there was a warming up, but in the light environment of Feicheng, the market of Monoammonium is also difficult to escape "disaster".

In the beginning of the year, the quotation of ammonium powder has decreased by about 50 yuan compared with that before the festival. At present, the quotation of 55% ammonium powder in Hubei large factories is about 2150 yuan (ton price, the same below), the actual output is around 2050-2100 yuan, and the low-end output is less than 2000 yuan; the quotation of 55% ammonium powder in Sichuan large factories is 2050 yuan, which is 50 yuan lower than that before the festival, and the actual transaction can still be discussed; the quotation of 55% ammonium powder in Henan enterprises after the festival is the same as that in Hubei, Particle price 2150-2200 yuan, heard the actual factory 2050 yuan.

After the festival, prices did not improve, but fell. How about the recent market of monoammonium? And listen to me:

Low startup rate, high inventory pressure. On the supply side, ammonium start-up temporarily maintained pre-holiday status. According to the author's rough calculation, as of the second Monday of February, the overall start-up rate of ammonium was as low as 43.57%. The start-up rate of Hubei enterprises in the main production area was only 40.98%. Most enterprises still limited production and stopped production. Enterprises resumed production as early as after the fifteenth day of the first lunar month, and the return time of some small factories was still uncertain. Most enterprises have a certain inventory pressure, heard that some large factories have more than 100,000 tons of ammonium inventory, before and after the Spring Festival, the new orders of enterprises are not good, the number of pending orders is not much, the speed of inventory consumption is very slow, even if low-price and bottom-keeping sales policies are adopted, it will be difficult to solve the urgent problem in the short term.

The demand for monoammonium has not improved significantly under the depressive climate. In the first few months of the festival, the demand for ammonium is very light, and temporarily after the Spring Festival. The overall start-up rate of downstream compound fertilizer enterprises is still low, and some compound mast plants in Shandong and other places are inadequate. It is expected that as early as the 15th of January, the demand for ammonium will rise one after another. Agricultural and sideline products such as terminal grain, vegetables and fruits are inexpensive, unsatisfactory in sales, and the enthusiasm of grassroots fertilizer procurement is not high. In addition, recent snowfalls and rainfalls in various places, low temperature, delayed market start-up time compared with previous years, distributors wait and see, there is no large-scale plan to purchase compound fertilizer. In this case, the compound fertilizer enterprises are under great pressure, coupled with inadequate start-up, so the raw material monoammonium is not in a hurry to purchase. However, the ammonium market has gone through a few months of light, some small and medium-sized compound fertilizer enterprises began to recover gradually, the purchase of raw materials will gradually be put on the agenda, it is known that some enterprises basically do not have raw materials ammonium inventory, the rigid demand of ammonium in the latter period will gradually highlight.

The raw material market has not yet officially started, but there are signs of weakness. After the festival, the market of phosphate ore is still acceptable, the mine holiday is not over yet, and the ore price is stable temporarily. The sulphur market continued its decline before the festival. It is reported that the price of sulphur in a domestic refinery has been lowered by 100 yuan to 970 yuan at a time recently. The price of sulphur in Puguangda Prefecture has dropped below 1000 yuan before the festival. The price of sulphur in Wanzhou Port and Yangtze Port Port has also been hovering around 1000 yuan. Because of unsatisfactory demand, slow inventory consumption, the price of sulphur may continue to decline. The price of liquid ammonia is still at a low level after the festival. At present, the storage of liquid ammonia in Hubei has reached about 2900 yuan

In summary, the industry is not confident in the recent phase of the ammonium market, some have expected a turnaround in the near mid-March ammonium market, looking forward to the 2019 ammonium market reversal against the wind!