After the Lantern Festival, the year is officially over. According to reason, fertilizer will gradually enter the stage of demand start-up. One year's plan is spring. Spring cultivation demand is the stage that many fertilizer enterprises pay close attention to. What kind of market will the demand appear this spring? Will there be intensive purchasing of chemical fertilizers?

First, urea prices are still steadily falling. During the Spring Festival, the mainstream quotation of small urea particles in Shandong Lianghe area is about 1880-1900 yuan/ton. After the Spring Festival, the urea price has fallen slightly due to the rising rate of start-up and slow start-up of demand. The range is about 30-50 yuan/ton. At present, the mainstream quotation of small urea particles in Shandong Lianghe area is about 1830-1880 yuan/ton, and the total daily output has reached about 145,000 tons. Outside Shandong and Henan urea mainstream turnover factory in 1820-1860 yuan/ton, Shanxi low-end small particle train plate factory 1730 yuan/ton, large particle 1760 yuan/ton, Guangzhou warehouse urea trading price 2010 yuan/ton, about Shanxi train plate price only 1710 yuan/ton; it is reported that in March a batch of 30,000 tons of Iranian urea will arrive in Zhenjiang Port, possibly 230 dollars landed. On the one hand, urea enterprises have a high start-up rate; on the other hand, international urea prices are low, while domestic industrial and agricultural demand is not well started, all information is pointing to the bad, so urea quotation still has a downward trend in the short term.

Secondly, the compound fertilizer demand quotation has not improved. After the Spring Festival, although the market demand is very weak, some compound fertilizer enterprises are still bidding, ready to look at the market and make a decision. Then after the Lantern Festival, multiple negative factors are intertwined: urea prices continue to fall, the price of diammonium diving, the price of Monoammonium dropping steadily and steadily, the price of potassium chloride is falling steadily. Compound fertilizer enterprises can not sit on their stools and have to loosen their quotations. At present, the mainstream quotation of 45% chlorine-based general manufacturer in China is about 1950-2100 yuan/ton, which is about 50-100 yuan/ton lower than that before the festival. Despite the price loosening, there is no sign of hot picking up goods in the downstream. It seems that it is really not urgent. A distributor in Northeast China said, "Grass-roots fertilizer is very slow, the main reason is lack of money, and soybean subsidies are not yet determined, grass-roots species are not yet available." It's uncertain what kind of crop to plant, not to mention chemical fertilizers before the seeds have been purchased.

Thirdly, the use of chemical fertilizers has changed from zero growth to negative growth, and compound fertilizers have been aggravated again. On February 17, 2015, the Ministry of Agriculture issued the "Zero Increase Action of Fertilizer Use in 2020", and the compound fertilizer industry has taken active action. This action was basically realized in 2018. On the one hand, affected by environmental protection, the starting rate of compound fertilizer enterprises has been running at a low level all the year round, on the other hand, some benefits have been achieved. Low-level compound fertilizer enterprises gradually withdraw from the compound fertilizer industry, roughly calculating the production capacity of China's compound fertilizer in 2018 is about 200 million tons, while most of the compound fertilizer enterprises in 2018 start-up rate is only 40% - 50% hovering, then the actual output estimate is only about 0.8-100 million tons, and the document is only to achieve negative growth, then the compound fertilizer market in 2019 will be more severe, and the output will only be on the above basis. Reduce.

Finally, although the spring demand is just around the corner and the demand space is large in the later period, the overcapacity of compound fertilizer and the shrinkage of market demand are the most critical obstacles. Therefore, the spring market of compound fertilizer may usher in a double day of ice and fire, we will wait and see.