As we all know, the market demand for fertilizers in spring is not good, the snow and rainy weather has led to repeated delays in winter wheat returning to green and topdressing fertilizer, the recovery of industrial delivery is slow, although urea manufacturers'quotations have increased tentatively for two times, but soon fell back to the original point or even lower, the expected urea surge of other fertilizers has not been achieved for the time being, so there is no opportunity for urea to rise next? Of course not. Since February 23, the quotation of urea manufacturers in Shandong Province has been increased by 10-50 yuan/ton. Urea will rise in March, or even a little in part. Why?

Firstly, although the demand for wheat green manure has been delayed due to bad weather, it will not be absent. Although the quantity is relatively small, when the demand is released centrally, the cargo vehicles at the urea factory gate line up. This is why urea prices rose in the first two weeks. When the weather cleared up in Jiangsu, Anhui, and other places, the downstream delivery of wheat green manure will increase appropriately. Of course, with the recent inventory pressure of urea manufacturers has increased slightly, the next increase in urea prices and time is likely to be a flash in the pan, probably only staying at the level of price increase.

Secondly, under haze weather and environmental protection inspection, the acceptance of industrial compound fertilizer enterprises, plywood plants and power plants is worse than expected, but the environmental protection pressure may be greater during the Beijing two sessions in March, and the acceptance of industrial products should be better before and after that. The second session of the 13th National People's Congress will be held in Beijing on March 5, 2019. The duration is estimated to be 10-12 days. Therefore, after February 25-March 3 and March 15, the amount of urea received by industry should be slightly larger, which is likely to support the stabilization or small increase of urea prices.

Thirdly, although the export situation is not satisfactory, the latest data show that the urea export volume of our country reached 590,000 tons in January 2019, an increase of 312.8% compared with 143,500 tons in January 2018. The relatively large export volume digested to a certain extent more than 400,000 tons of pre-storage and newly arrived urea cargo in Hong Kong before the Spring Festival, especially 140,000 tons of outstanding quantity of individual urea enterprises before the Spring Festival. It's a good place to go. At present, China's urea port holds more than 300,000 tons, not to mention the pressure. Considering the high price of Urea Export and the lack of export intention, China's urea export price has fallen below US$280 per ton offshore in a short period of time, that is, the price of Urea Export delivered to China's ports is only 1774 yuan per ton, which has not brought substantial shortfall. In addition to the news that 30,000 tons of Iranian urea will arrive in Zhenjiang Port in March, the urea industry only needs to pay attention to the domestic supply and demand situation for the time being.

Then, although the urea start-up rate has rebounded, once as high as 147,000 tons per day, but there are small fluctuations, such as the recent production reduction of 20% in Sichuan-Chongqing gas-head urea enterprises, less than 50% in Inner Mongolia gas-head urea enterprises, a temporary shutdown of a urea enterprise in Hebei Province on the evening of 23, estimated to last about a week, the relationship between gas price negotiations between two gas-head enterprises in Inner Mongolia and the time for resumption of production. The daily production of urea in China is about 143,000 tons as of February 25. Next, a large urea enterprise in Inner Mongolia will start overhauling half of the plant on February 25. Although the rebound in construction has brought some negative effects to the urea market, it is not out of control yet. It is still feasible for urea prices to rise occasionally.

Finally, the Southwest market has been launched, and the spring markets in Northeast and Northwest China are about to reach the stage of having to pick up goods. Take planting land in Northeast China on May 1 as an example, urea and compound fertilizer should be in the hands of farmers before mid-April, then distributors around mid-March should ensure the quantity and time of arrival of fertilizers to avoid being out of stock at the time of fertilizer use. Therefore, the urea market in Northeast and Northwest China will start soon. It is estimated that once the price of urea falls again, distributors should start. In March, the price of urea will rise, but only in March. The rhythm of the price increase depends on the game between buyers and sellers, especially on the recovery rate of start-up and logistics situation.


What's more, whether it's large provincial farmers or small and medium-sized distributors, trying to master the rhythm of picking up and delivering goods can bring support to urea market. Don't start to dump goods without waiting for all the market's good, which is very detrimental to the development of urea market.


In short, urea prices will rise in March at a probable rate, urea manufacturers can offer a fairly good price for land sales, and the price gap between land sales and export will continue to expand, of course, on the premise of ensuring that only a modest amount of goods from other provinces are available; distributors can lower prices once or twice and then sell, of course, the price increase is likely to be short-lived, do not expect too much, fast in and fast out.