At the end of March, urea continues to rise unexpectedly, and the momentum is still relatively strong. It is true that spring demand has entered a small climax period. At the same time, with the intensification of environmental protection in the "two sessions", urea has continued to rise for more than half a month. The demand for compound fertilizer has gradually warmed up. Most of the compound fertilizer enterprises are on the good track. However, in the face of the rising price of urea, the compound fertilizer industry is more worried and happy. Half-way, the recent rising price of urea makes compound fertilizer enterprises laugh and cry. Is it joy or worry?

At the beginning of March, urea quotation was revised back. The main reason for the price increase was affected by the environmental protection of the CPPCC and CPPCC. Some urea enterprises were limited to start construction. In addition, local demand was centralized to start, and supply in some areas was slightly tight. The mainstream quotation of small granular urea in Shandong Lianghe area went up from 1870-1900 yuan/ton to 1970-2020 yuan/ton all the way, with an increase of about 100 yuan/ton. So how much does the rise in urea quotation affect the market of compound fertilizer? Is it good or bad? It also needs careful analysis.

First of all, urea price rise has a positive impact on the compound fertilizer market. From the perspective of demand start-up, the rise of urea quotation does have some signs of stimulating the start-up of compound fertilizer market demand. After all, the confidence of basic level and distributors in fertilizer preparation in the early stage has been very low, and the rising trend lasting for nearly a month has indeed stimulated the confidence of downstream delivery to a certain extent. Recently, the demand for compound fertilizer in Northeast, Central Plains, Jiangsu and parts of South China has warmed up faster. In particular, most enterprises in the Central Plains region are restricted by start-up, and even there is a slightly tense phenomenon of going goods. The quotation of high nitrogen fertilizer for individual enterprises is tentatively increased by about 20 yuan/ton. Some enterprises in the Northeast region are tentatively increased by the end of March, but the overall quotation is still relatively stable, mainly for shipment. Therefore, the increase of urea quotation has certain effect on the spring quotation of compound fertilizer. Good factors.

Secondly, the negative impact of urea price rise on compound fertilizer market. From the standpoint of reserving raw materials, the rise of urea quotation has hidden dangers for the operation of fertilizer in late summer. In recent years, the price of nitrogen, phosphorus and potassium raw materials fluctuates frequently. Most compound fertilizer enterprises store raw materials on demand, especially urea. Most compound fertilizer enterprises only have a small amount of reserves. In spring, the consumption of finished products of compound fertilizers is mostly the raw material of pre-reserve. At the end of March and the beginning of April, spring demand is about to end. Compound fertilizer enterprises are about to reserve raw materials for summer fertilizer, while urea quotation remains high. This means that most of the compound fertilizer enterprises will bear great cost pressure, and the downstream high quoted compound fertilizer does not buy the bill also makes most of the compound fertilizer enterprises feel two-sided dilemma.

Finally, spring demand is coming to an end, and fertilizer operation in summer is starting gradually. The rhythm of raw material procurement restricts the development of enterprises to a certain extent. Therefore, compound fertilizer enterprises still need to be cautious and grasp the rhythm of raw material procurement in order to occupy a position in the competitive compound fertilizer market.