This week, urea prices continued to rise, now the mainstream urea ex-factory quotation in Shandong Province is 1970-1990 yuan (ton price, the same below), urea receiving price in Linyi compound fertilizer enterprises rose to 2040-2050 yuan, low-end transaction reference of large plants has been pushed up to about 1970 yuan; mainstream urea ex-factory quotation in Hebei Province is 1970-1990 yuan, low-end transaction reference is about 1930 yuan; mainstream urea urea ex-factory quotation in Henan Province is about 1930 yuan. Price 1950-1990 yuan, Shanxi small grain mainstream factory quotation 1890-1900 yuan, large grain about 1960 yuan, after the two sessions, the market demand continued to exert momentum, due to the continued increase in orders issued by generations, factory quotations continue to rise, it is known that some gas head urea enterprises will resume production in the near future, some industries have certain doubts about the later market: urea is to continue to maintain before supply increases Does the trend continue to rise, or does supply drag down prices? Whether urea prices fluctuate or not in the late stage, the views of most people in the industry are summarized as follows:

Firstly, there is still demand in the market, but it is not urgent. At the present stage, agricultural demand for spring tillage fertilizer in some areas has ended. Only one season crops in Northeast China have not yet started spring tillage, and there is a certain demand for replenishment. Although there is a need for purchase, there is still a certain buffer time from spring tillage. Some distributors still take a wait-and-see attitude. On the contrary, in the industrial market, the purchase of raw materials in spring has been fully reserved, and some factories have opened. Starting with the proper purchase of raw materials for summer fertilizer, but after all, the demand has not yet started, and the volume of goods continued to be relatively small in the later period.

Secondly, the overall increase in urea supply after parturition is not too large. According to the statistics of China Chemical Fertilizer Network, the daily output of urea enterprises in the country is maintained at the present stage at about 143,000 tons. In addition, some urea enterprises plan to enter the overhaul state in the near future, while some gas enterprises have started production as early as before and after the Lantern Festival. It is expected that the daily output of urea will be maintained at about 150,000 tons after the gas enterprises resume production. In the short run, there is no possibility of price reduction due to supply pressures.

Finally, it is not necessary to reduce the price. At the present stage, according to the cost calculation of pulverized coal gasification, the price can guarantee a certain profit point, but the actual demand of local markets is not too much in the later period. Even if the urea price is lowered, it will not lead to more orders. The grass-roots market is about to start. In order to support the operation of local agents, it is also necessary for enterprises to make a bid. Based on the above two points, the urea price is expected to be at least acceptable. Stay steady for a while.

_To sum up, although the agricultural demand in some regions has ended recently, the overall demand in the industrial market has begun to start, urea quotation has increased in varying degrees. It is expected that urea quotation will still rise further with the gradual start of demand, but enterprises with multi-site shutdown and production restriction plan to resume production before the beginning of April, and it is expected that the increase rate will be limited in the later period.