Speaking of fertilizer market this spring, both joys and sorrows are mixed. At present, the overall spring market process is basically over half. Many distributors with large gaps in the early stage have been replenishing their warehouses one after another. Only some farmers'enthusiasm for fertilizer production is not high, resulting in a slightly depressed atmosphere. However, although the spring market has not yet shown signs of tail-sweeping, the summer market has begun to show a sharp edge, which shows that the market of compound fertilizer is really like the market. The climate is the same, spring blossoms.

As one of the most concerned fertilizers at the present stage, high nitrogen maize fertilizer has made a strong appearance, not only in demand, but also in price. It is known that up to now, 40% chloro-based high nitrogen maize fertilizer (such as 28-6/30-5-5) has been tentatively quoted at 1950-2100 yuan per ton, up nearly 100 yuan per ton over the same period last year. Combining with the following points, the author believes that during the summer fertilizer market, the price of high nitrogen fertilizer will be difficult to fall sharply.

Firstly, cost support. Since the start of the spring market, the price of compound fertilizer has been strong as a whole, accompanied by a small rise. In the final analysis, it can be said that the support of cost and the pull of demand. Recently, the raw materials are mostly good, urea prices have been soaring all the way. After setting the top, urea prices have started to oscillate at a high level. It is expected that there will be a possibility of price reduction in the later period, but the decline is uncertain. The price of ammonium has risen slightly, the downstream bottom-reading mentality has increased, and enterprises plan to increase their quotations slightly. Potassium fertilizer is not hot, the port supply is too much, the international market is temporarily unfavourable, and the short-term stability is dominant. Combined with the above content, the overall raw material price has not declined significantly, and the cost of compound fertilizer will not fluctuate significantly in the short term.

Secondly, demand support. In the spring market, the atmosphere in the northern region is relatively more active, and the demand for fertilizer is relatively more. The first reason is that most of the northern regions are mainly planting field crops, and the area is extensive. The second reason is that the frequent rainy weather in some parts of the southern region this spring has seriously hindered agricultural activities, resulting in the reduction of fertilizer delivery activities. Spring and summer markets converge with each other, and there is basically no obvious demarcation point. In the case of uninterrupted demand, even if the downstream release is slightly delayed, there is still some room. In this way, if there is no big fluctuation in raw materials, the willingness of enterprises to bid will continue under the pull of demand.

Finally, the supply is slightly tight. In recent days, the rise of fertilizer prices has more or less been related to the shortage of upstream supply. The successive explosion accidents in chemical enterprises have sounded a safety alarm for the society, and the subsequent national chemical safety investigation activities have officially opened. It has been heard that some areas such as Shandong and Jiangsu are extremely strict, and many fertilizer enterprises'production activities have been affected. In addition to the tight supply caused by policy factors, a large number of centralized releases of local market demand are also the main reasons. The large gap in the early stage and the insufficient capacity in the late stage of taking goods have contributed to the heat of the compound fertilizer market to a certain extent.

In conclusion, a slight improvement in raw materials and supply and demand may lead to a relatively stable compound fertilizer market in the short term. As for the long-term market, the price of compound fertilizer may not rise significantly, and the downstream can purchase in a proper amount according to its own situation.