Urea fell on April 2, not a day earlier or a day later. First, a factory in Henan fell 20 yuan/ton, then a factory in Jiangsu fell 30 yuan/ton on April 3, and then a factory in Shandong fell 40 yuan/ton every day for three consecutive days from April 4 to 6.

It is surprising that Shandong's factory rebounded 10 yuan/ton to 2030 yuan/ton on April 7.

However, the overall urea market downward trend should be the trend, but not much, not fast. Linyi pick-up price and manufacturer's quotation is the best explanation. From the high of 2120 yuan/ton at the end of March to 2040-2060 yuan/ton on April 8, the manufacturer's surface quotation only dropped from the high of 2050-2080 yuan/ton to 2010-2050 yuan/ton.

_At present, the urea market quotation is stable and weak, and the decline is not much. What is the reason?

Firstly, urea factories still have orders to be issued. A few factories have orders to be issued in excess of 20-30,000 tons. Most factories have not many orders to be issued, but they are still a little bit. It's still quite possible to eat the old ones or to decline steadily in three or five days.

_Secondly, compound fertilizer manufacturers are still receiving goods, and their production of high nitrogen fertilizer has not yet ended. Especially in Northeast China, compound fertilizer manufacturers are still receiving urea as raw materials. Urea manufacturers need not reduce their prices so quickly for the time being. On the one hand, they need to make a market for compound fertilizer manufacturers. On the other hand, they are studying how to lower their prices more conducive to shipment, or to see if a steady and dark drop can play a role first. 。

Thirdly, the urea stock in the grass-roots market is really small. At present, urea manufacturers have not fully executed the high-price orders. Some large urea agricultural companies still have goods to be sold. One day later, the price will be reduced.

Finally, the urea start-up rate is rising obviously, but it still needs more than a week to impact the market, especially a little twists and turns. For example, a factory in Inner Mongolia temporarily shut down for more than one day, a factory in Shaanxi temporarily shut down for more than two days, and another factory in Shaanxi temporarily shut down for more than a week.

Is it going to rise so soon? No, short-term bearish factors are slightly more, as long as the downstream insists on not taking goods, the next price decline can last for a relatively long time.

Firstly, the price of urea manufacturers'pending orders is slightly higher than that of 2000 yuan/ton, and slightly higher than that of 1900. It will always be executed. Spring and summer markets will not be seamlessly linked. Small and medium-sized distributors downstream can wait for a period of time, at least for a short period of time, waiting for urea manufacturers to reduce their prices when they meet the new orders.

__ The heating period has basically ended, and the demand for urea in power plants has entered a relatively small off-season, which will also lead to lower urea prices to a certain extent.

Thirdly, the price of 2030-2050 yuan per ton of urea from Shandong is still 300 yuan per ton above the cost line. Small and medium-sized distributors must wait properly. If the high-priced orders from urea manufacturers are executed and some of the goods from large urea agricultural companies are exhausted, the urea price will be reduced a little faster.

Fourthly, the high urea start-up rate will soon take a very significant negative effect. The daily production of urea is 155,000 tons, but far higher than the same period in the past two years. Once various low-price and high-price sources flow, urea prices will be irresistible.

Fifth, it is also the most critical point in the near future. The import of urea is fierce. The two cargo cargo, that is, more than 100,000 tons of imported urea, will flow into China. They will arrive at Hong Kong from April 9 to early May. Although the quantity is small and the time is not so early, the negative impact on the mentality of domestic urea manufacturers is becoming more and more intense.

_One word, wait, two word game, how much price reduction this time, and how long can it last, is the psychological game between buyers and sellers, especially the need to observe whether there is a large amount of money flowing into the urea market, to help urea prices run at a high level, if not, the urea factory price at 1800-1900 yuan/ton price is more reasonable, waiting for the peak of the summer market to climb again. One hundred to 200 yuan per ton.