In early May, when the compound fertilizer market entered a tepid period again, the demand in Northeast China ended and only partial replenishment was left. The first wave of high-nitrogen corn fertilizer in Central Plains was completed. The compound fertilizer enterprises entered a short off-season again. When the replenishment started in the later period has not yet been determined. After May Day, the urea quotation began to decline steadily, and the urea quotation was supported by urea quotation. Where will the price of the walking compound fertilizer go in the later period?

First, urea is once again in an unstable state. In the second week of May, urea quotation changed from bright and stable to direct price reduction. The mainstream quotation of small granular urea in Shandong Lianghe area dropped to about 1970-2020 yuan/ton. On the surface, it was not much lower than that before the festival, but the actual transaction declined greatly. The low-end quotation of small granular urea in Shanxi area dropped to less than 1900, while the mainstream quotation of large granular urea in Inner Mongolia area dropped to about 1880 yuan/ton. The fluctuation of vegetable quotation has a direct impact on the confidence of corn fertilizer preparation in Central Plains, which leads to the slow progress of fertilizer preparation.

Secondly, compound fertilizer enterprises began to shake their price confidence. Last Monday, the price confidence of high nitrogen fertilizer in compound fertilizer enterprises was relatively sufficient, mainly because the demand for corn fertilizer was still releasing, while the price of urea and ammonium chloride was strong at a high level, especially the price of ammonium chloride was rising, which brought sufficient confidence to compound fertilizer enterprises and downstream, and compound fertilizer enterprises were relatively smoothly moving. However, urea slowed down this week, and the price of ammonium chloride was also at a high level. The loosening of urea quotation and the bottleneck period of partial purchasing have made a few compound fertilizer enterprises shaky in their bid confidence. If urea quotation continues to fall, some compound fertilizer enterprises will plan to introduce preferential policies to stimulate downstream purchasing.

Thirdly, how much urea fluctuation will cause the chain reaction of compound fertilizer? To be fair, the performance of urea in the first half of this year has been very satisfactory. It began to rise in the spring demand period and consolidated at a high level. This has made some urea enterprises make a lot of money. The market of compound fertilizer in spring and summer has also borrowed a little light. The price has also risen slightly compared with last year. Although there is no climax in commodities, the normal daily purchases are also quite full. Meaning, if urea can continue to remain high and strong, the first half of the compound fertilizer market will usher in a successful end, but if urea quotation continues to decline, the decline of more than 100 yuan/ton, the later corn fertilizer replenishment is still very significant.

Finally, anyway, the first half of 2019 is coming to an end, and the last battle is in May. We will wait and see if we can all have a successful outcome in the final period.