In mid and late May, the market of chemical fertilizers is as changeable as the weather in Harbin. The sunshine was bright two days ago, and a sudden light rain hit the market. One second into summer and one second into winter, which caught people by surprise. Recently, the urea market continued to decline slightly, which also confused the people of chemical fertilizer. Now, the quotation of small grain mainstream manufacturer in Shandong Lianghe area has dropped to about 1960-1970 yuan/ton, but the price is still on the high side for the downstream. Will nitrogen and potassium topdressing become the new darling of the downstream?

First of all, the demand for corn bottom fertilizer in Northeast China has ended, and there is still a demand for topdressing in some areas. According to the survey of China Chemical Fertilizer Network, the demand for fertilizer for Maize in Northeast China is basically over. Liaoning uses more disposable maize fertilizer, and the demand for topdressing is less. There is a small amount of topdressing demand in Jilin, Heilongjiang and Inner Mongolia, but there is no large amount of urea reserve in the early stage. Recently, the price of urea has continued to decline, especially the small-grain urea in Inner Mongolia has dropped to 1700-1720 yuan/ton. Around, however, it is relatively difficult to get goods, so large single customers will enjoy such quotations, and urea prices in most areas are still running at a high level. In the first half of the year, under the high price of urea and ammonium chloride, the cost of nitrogen and potassium topdressing is not low, so the quotation of 35% Cl (30:0:5) is more than 1800 yuan/ton, so the downstream acceptance of urea and nitrogen and potassium topdressing is not high, and the purchasing intention of ammonium chloride and ammonium sulfate is larger.

Secondly, the first round of maize fertilizer reserve in Central Plains has been completed, and there is also the demand for nitrogen and potassium topdressing in the later period. At present, the demand for corn fertilizer preparation in Central Plains is about 5-60%, and there is still a lot of room for demand in some areas. However, recently urea prices have fallen again and again, and the supply of corn fertilizer in the pre-reserve is still hoarded at the level of distributors, so the second round of replenishment is slow, so the progress of nitrogen and potassium topdressing is relatively delayed.

Thirdly, some compound fertilizer enterprises have turned to N and K topdressing, but the production is not large. On the one hand, owing to the high price of urea and ammonium chloride, the procurement progress of raw materials for compound fertilizer enterprises has slowed down; on the other hand, the demand for nitrogen and potassium topdressing is relatively small, which is only started in some areas of northeast and central plains. So at present, the enthusiasm of most compound fertilizers to convert to nitrogen and potassium topdressing is not great, and there are many substitutes for topdressing, such as urea, ammonium chloride and ammonium sulphate, and partly More slow-release and controlled-release fertilizers are applied in the region, and the demand for topdressing is not large, so the production of nitrogen and potassium topdressing in compound fertilizer enterprises is not large this year.

Finally, the compound fertilizer market has entered a tepid state in the middle and late May. It seems that the good fortune of the first half of the year has been used up, but it is difficult to say whether there will be a reversal in the latter part. After all, tax collection will change after June 1. After all, there will be demand for fertilizer in the latter part. We can only predict that the compound fertilizer market will still be stable and downward before the end of May. The phenomenon of goods dump will occur in some enterprises.