With the end of fertilizer use in Northeast and Northwest China, it also indicates that diammonium supply in the domestic market has come to an end. After entering the off-season, some distributors in Northeast China began to dump their products. At present, 64% of diammonium Brown has dropped to 2750 yuan (ton price, the same below). Although 64% of diammonium in Xinjiang is relatively high, the actual turnover is relatively poor. Although there is still demand in North China and Central China, it is relatively far from the start-up time of demand. After entering May, domestic demand has entered the off-season. Because of the relatively high storage conditions of diammonium, most traders have dumped their products. However, considering the current supply-demand relationship between the upstream and downstream of diammonium, the overall market of diammonium should not be too pessimistic. The main points are as follows:

Firstly, the hypertrophic environment is relatively good. The price of urea ran from 1600 yuan to 1700 yuan in the same period last year. This year, the price of urea in Shandong Lianghe and other places maintained above 1900 yuan. Although the market acceptance is low at present, according to the overall supply and demand situation of this year and last year, even if the price of urea falls this year, it will be very difficult to fall to the same period last year. The price of urea can support the overall price of compound fertilizer at one level. Relatively high, the overall environmental price of chemical fertilizer is relatively high, so even if the demand for diammonium is less, the price may not fall too much.

Secondly, the early stage of the international market is still possible. According to customs statistics, China exported 1.11 million tons of diammonium in the first quarter of this year, far exceeding the same period last year. Although the overall performance of the international market is slightly weak, the market demand of India still exists, and China still has certain advantages in exporting to India. In addition, the recent devaluation of the RMB is too large, and the export enthusiasm of enterprises is relatively increased. Although the current off-shore transaction price has been declining continuously, the market demand of India still exists. Driven by the exchange rate, it can be basically flat for the time being.

Finally, part of the domestic goods, mainly the Federal Reserve, started slightly down. Although the overall domestic demand is poor at present, it is possible for enterprises to conduct Fed joint marketing with some large traders to ensure their own domestic market share. On the one hand, it is to ensure that core customers are not lost, on the other hand, it is also to reduce some pressure for enterprises themselves; and most diammonium enterprises have annual maintenance plans, which are expected to last for about half a month, later supply or There will be a reduction.

In summary, although the current supply and demand situation shows that the price of diammonium has a relatively high possibility of falling, according to the above factors, the price reduction of diammonium in the whole summer fertilizer market is only about 100 yuan. If the export market continues to develop as last year, it is also possible for the domestic fertilizer market to maintain a stable price level in the later period with the help of export. So off-season diammonium should not be too pessimistic.