Urea prices are falling! Since May 4, prices have fallen steadily all the way, and then steadily. Up to now, the quotation of urea manufacturers in Northeast China has fallen by 100-140 yuan/ton, the quotation of urea manufacturers in Inner Mongolia has fallen by 80-150 yuan/ton, the quotation of Shandong manufacturers has fallen by 80 yuan/ton, and the quotation of urea manufacturers in Shanxi has fallen by 40-80 yuan/ton.

Looking back on the urea market from March to the present, the risk is rising, especially in late March and mid-April, the two wave price increases are really hurting! In late April, the price fell a little, and even rebounded before the May Day holiday. May 4 has been a real good fall so far. Opportunities fall out! Why do you say that?

On the one hand, lower and lower prices will make the operational space of urea manufacturers larger if there is a price increase later. On the other hand, with a very low price and closer to the cost line, the selling misery will begin, and the price increase will push the boat along the river; of course, if the gas-head urea enterprises or a few coal-head urea enterprises fall below the cost line for a period of time, they will be forced to stop production, and the current situation of urea production reaching 158-161,000 tons per day, which is much higher than that of the same period in recent three years, will also be the high start-up situation. It is easy to sustain the rise in urea prices if the production per day is below 140,000 tons. Then, if the price falls again and again, driven by the psychology of buying up and not buying down, there will be fewer distributors with goods in hand during the period of price fall, but there will be enough incentive for price increase in the future.

_After looking at the benefits of the fall, let's predict how the urea market will end in May.

_At the end of April, Zhongfei Car is expected to have a weak stalemate in the urea market in May. Can urea prices rise after falling? It's hard.

Firstly, the situation of urea production and marketing is worse than expected. Urea manufacturers recently signed some low-price orders (usually 40,000-50,000 tons to be issued in this round of price drops have not yet been realized), but it seems that they did not meet the expectations. In order to increase the price in the future or to say that they had to increase once or twice in June, they still need to strengthen in the short term, and further price increases are needed.

Secondly, domestic demand is quite low at present. In industry, the receiving performance of power plants and plywood factories is flat. The receiving performance of compound fertilizer factories is in the summer-autumn intermission period. The receiving price of Linyi has dropped from 2070-2080 yuan/ton to 1960-1975 yuan/ton, especially the differential urea produced by urea factories in spring. At the end of spring, the distributors took ammonium chloride and ammonium sulfate, which arrived in June-July. In the stage of top-dressing and fertilizer preparation, these are competitive with compound fertilizer. Compound fertilizer factories naturally dare not produce autumn fertilizer ahead of schedule, dare not produce summer fertilizer rashly, have limited capacity to receive urea, and can not give much support to urea price. Agricultural aspect, this should be the peak season for fertilizer recovery in Northeast and Northwest China, but for the time being, it is only reflected in the local market. The quantity of Boer is not large, it may be delayed, and it may also be finished in spring. Especially in Northeast China, there is a little surplus of large granular urea in spring. It will replace some small granular urea when fertilizing, which is worse. The sluggish price of liquid ammonia also confirms the poor industrial demand.

_Thirdly, there is still not much good in export. International urea prices have been rising for more than three weeks. India's bidding results are also good, but it only digests most of the urea imported from China to avoid these sources flowing into the domestic market. It is reported that the arrival of cargo in mid-May and beyond, together with the imminent arrival of imported urea, has reached more than 60,000 tons, and the final flow of these cargo still needs attention.

Finally, the start-up is unusually high, urea production lasts longer than 150,000 tons per day than the same period of nearly three years, and even reached 160,000 tons as of May 17. Considering the delivery cycle of one to two weeks, the impact of start-up is lagging, so this unusually high start-up union inhibits the rise of urea prices in the short term.

In summary, the positive factors are too difficult to find. Although four or five urea manufacturers in Shandong, Hebei and Inner Mongolia are about to be repaired, urea prices in Inner Mongolia and other places seem to be low enough, but these manufacturers have not received enough orders, including Shanxi, Shaanxi and other manufacturers, prices are not low enough to absorb large quantities of orders, so if urea prices rise before the end of May, it is more likely to be a flash in the pan, more likely to be to be a flash in the pan. Prices of urea will remain low until the end of May.