After mid-May, the demand of summer fertilizer market came quietly. Although the demand of summer fertilizer was mainly high nitrogen fertilizer corn fertilizer, the purchase of urea had already ended in the early stage, and the overall price of urea market began to decline after entering May. Up to now, even though the quotation of urea in some individual areas increased slightly, most of the places still had. Regional urea prices are still declining. For example, in Shandong and Lianghe, the reference price for urea trading has dropped to about 1950 yuan (ton price, the same below), or even below 1900 yuan at the low end. Although the price in Xinjiang has rebounded, due to the pressure of local supply, it has begun to sell outside Xinjiang. The reference price for urea trading has dropped to 1600-1620 yuan, part of the current urea market order. The industry with the demand for fertilizer is in a dilemma. What are the main reasons that affect the recent urea price trend? The author and the industry understand and summarize the following points:

First, demand support is weak. In Northeast China and Inner Mongolia, there is a certain demand for fertilizer topdressing around mid-June, and the potential demand of compound fertilizer plant is larger in the later period. It is reasonable that urea should not be reduced at present, either to support the purchase of compound fertilizer or to pave the way for the urea topdressing market in the later period. However, the current market is at a high price level due to the influence of downstream TRADERS'rejection of goods and the early stock-up of the topdressing market. On the other hand, the weakening demand comes from the international market. Because the price of the international market is much higher than the international level in the past two years, urea export volume has been decreasing year by year, and international low-price goods have been pouring in one after another. Although the quantity is small, the current depressed urea market in China is undoubtedly worsening. From the above two points, urea demand as a whole is increasing. One of the fundamental reasons for this reduction is the relatively poor price.
Secondly, supply pressure is high. Since the environmental protection and safety storms, the recent policy restrictions on urea have eased slightly, while the recent price of liquid ammonia and other raw materials has slightly declined, which has laid a good precondition for urea production. On the other hand, some factories have been shut down for a long time. In order to dilute their own production costs, enterprises in April, without restrictions, the overall start-up rate of the industry. According to the monitoring of China Chemical Fertilizer Network, the daily urea production fluctuates and rises after mid-April. As of Friday, the daily urea supply amounts to 161,000 tons. Some factories are temporarily in temporary maintenance. The overall supply of urea is still likely to continue to rise in the later period. Under this supply pressure, and the demand is relatively poor, urea as a whole has to enter the price. The state of war.

In summary, due to the above two points, the overall price of urea has been declining in the near future, together with the relatively low overall cost in the near future, and some enterprises with higher degree of integration still have some profit margins. It is expected that the urea price will still fall in the near future, and downstream purchasing still needs to be cautious.