For a long time, the fertilizer market has focused on urea, and its price trend has become a hot topic. Indeed, urea prices change more frequently than all other fertilizers, affecting the prices of various fertilizers. Recent urea market is unpredictable, and the future market is doubtful. Although there is more and more hype in the market, the current situation shows that the market is mainly weak during the festival.

At present, it belongs to the intermittent period of fertilizer market in summer and autumn. While striving to complete the end of summer fertilizer, all links are ready to play a fist in autumn fertilizer market to make up for the shortcomings in spring and summer. Naturally, enterprises and distributors pay special attention to several factors affecting the future market of compound fertilizer. It is expected that the autumn fertilizer market will start gradually after the end of June. What will happen then?

First of all, raw materials. Since the beginning of the year, the cost of raw materials has been slightly higher than that of the same period last year, which is also an important reason for the high price of compound fertilizer. As for the price of autumn fertilizer, the trend of nitrogen, phosphorus and potassium fertilizers is very important. Recently, the urea market has been moving forward, frequent fluctuations have blurred the future market, market participants mostly hope for the start of agricultural demand in June and the international good, but it remains to be observed; in autumn fertilizer is mainly high-phosphorus products, raw material procurement of compound fertilizer enterprises or break the magic spell of ammonium difficult to rise; potassium fertilizer port storage is significantly higher than the same period in history, lack of demand, short-term market or continue. Maintain vulnerability.

Secondly, the demand side. Autumn is the concentrated season for winter wheat cultivation in the mainstream areas. The yield of northern winter wheat areas such as Lianghe, Shandong and Shanxi accounts for about 56% of the total wheat production in China. So it seems that the demand for compound fertilizer in the Central Plains region alone is more objective, but from the demand situation of each season, there may be a reduction expectation. The first reason is that the adjustment of planting structure leads to the bureau. The area of wheat was reduced, and the amount of compound fertilizer was reduced. The second reason was the increase of alternative fertilizer, which was gradually recognized downstream while impacting the traditional compound fertilizer market.

Finally, the supply side. From the point of view of the summer fertilizer market alone, the overall supply situation is relatively normal, even if the release of local demand is concentrated, there is no rumored shortage or outage of goods. Therefore, it is also expected that the supply of fertilizer market in autumn will be stable. The first reason is that environmental protection and safety inspection have been carried out for several successive rounds, and previously unqualified enterprises have been basically eliminated or met the eligible standards. The second reason is that the autumn fertilizer market has a slightly longer span, and the time from fertilizer preparation to marketing stage is more abundant, so it is difficult to concentrate a large number of goods.

In summary, after mid-June, the summer fertilizer market will basically end, and the market will shift to the autumn fertilizer market. In view of the current trend of raw materials and supply and demand, it is expected that the initial start-up period will continue to be a weak steady state.