At this stage, the fertilizer market in autumn is about to start at the same time that the demand for fertilizer in summer is sweeping away. Influenced by raw materials, supply and demand, most of the fertilizer varieties have performed smoothly this summer. Taking compound fertilizer as an example, not only the trading atmosphere is not warm, but also the overall sales have decreased year-on-year. However, with the recent heavy rainy weather around the country, the fertilizer market in autumn has to be worrying.

According to the Central Meteorological Observatory, in the next three days, there will be heavy rainstorms in the south-central part of the Yangtze River, South China and the eastern part of Southwest China. In some areas, there will be heavy rainstorms and local extremely heavy rainstorms. In some areas, the cumulative rainfall will be 100-200 mm, and the local 300 mm or more, even the once-in-a-century flood water level will appear in a river basin in Guangxi. The so-called "house leak happens to rain overnight", and the bad weather conditions once again increase the pessimistic atmosphere in the autumn compound fertilizer market.

First, farming activities were delayed. Although the area of field crops such as wheat is small in autumn in South China, the amount of cash crops in many areas can not be ignored. Nowadays, heavy rainfall is continuing everywhere, and the future weather conditions are not optimistic. The unfavorable weather conditions may delay the downstream related farming activities, mainly because of the forced postponement of summer crop harvesting and a period of rest period, the overall progress stagnates. The postponement of farming activities also lags the fertilizer market in autumn, and the enthusiasm of downstream picking up goods in the initial stage of start-up will decrease accordingly.

Secondly, downstream demand is decreasing. In recent days, news about flooded streets, blister orchards and flooded farmland has spread all over the major information terminals. It can be seen that the sustained heavy rainfall has caused irreparable losses in many areas of agriculture. Once the phenomenon of crop yield reduction or crop failure occurs, the income of grass-roots farmers will be reduced, so that investment in farming activities in the next quarter will also decline. Overall, this year's price of compound fertilizer is indeed slightly higher than that of previous years. In the case of lower purchasing power at the grass-roots level, the situation of reduced fertilizer demand also exists.

In addition to the negative effects, the continuous rainy weather also has certain positive significance. Taking Yunnan as an example, affected by the background of global warming and El Nio events, the phenomena of high temperature and little rain, late rainy season and widening range of meteorological drought have persisted since this year. The affected area of crops in Yunnan Province is as large as 10 million mu. Rainfall weather has appeared in most areas of the province in recent days. Although the effective rainfall is limited, it may play a role in alleviating local drought. Therefore, agricultural activities will gradually resume and the autumn fertilizer market will naturally become active.

In summary, in view of the instability of the current raw material market, most of the compound fertilizer enterprises are waiting and watching. There is not much clue in the autumn fertilizer market. With the passage of time and the improvement of weather conditions, it is expected that the autumn fertilizer market will become clearer after the end of June.