In recent days, some regional fertilizer markets still have useful fertilizer demand, but due to the end of summer fertilizer market demand, the actual volume of the demand area is relatively small, the overall price of urea appears to be somewhat weak in the early stage, but this week urea prices in Shandong Lianghe and other places began to rebound, and now the main urea factory quotation in Shandong Province is 1890-1930 yuan (ton price, the same below), Linyi area compound fertilizer. Enterprise urea receiving price 1950 yuan, Hebei urea mainstream ex-factory quotation 1880-1910 yuan, Henan urea mainstream ex-factory quotation 1890-1900 yuan, but the industry has different opinions on this price increase, the main points are as follows:

Viewpoint 1: This urea price increase is in fact false.

Firstly, based on the domestic market demand. Due to the recent summer fertilizer market demand has been facing a tail-sweeping (although Xinjiang is in the peak season of fertilizer use, but based on its geographical location, the impact on the domestic urea market is not too great), while the next stage of high phosphorus fertilizer market although there is demand, due to relatively small quantity, and still need a period of time to start in the next procurement peak season, short-term demand support is relatively strong. For example, the urea enterprises supplying the local market in Henan have no signs of rising overall prices, and there is still room for discussion from the market feedback of new orders. Because the domestic market support is relatively poor, bad factors still exist, urea price rise support is relatively poor.

Secondly, it is based on domestic supply pressure. Although some urea enterprises have recently entered the phase of shutdown and production restriction, according to the data monitoring of China Chemical Fertilizer Network, the daily output of urea in kind in the whole country is still above 150,000 tons. In order to ensure their annual production plan, most enterprises have no restrictions on their start-up in summer and autumn. That is to say, the supply pressure of urea enterprises in the later period still exists, together with the domestic market demand. In the final stage of shaping, the possibility of retailers taking goods again is relatively low, and the possibility of urea price actually rising is relatively low based on such high output.

Viewpoint 2: This urea price increase is false, but it is true.

Firstly, enterprises have received a lot of low-price receipts recently. On Monday and Tuesday, most enterprises in Shandong Province began to collect large amounts of low-priced money. The amount of orders to be issued by enterprises can be sustained for a period of time. This will enable enterprises to take relative initiative in the game of urea market in China. The pressure on sales of enterprises will be reduced. The suitability of quotation will rise. After the increase, the willingness to bid up is relatively high. In extreme terms, even if a ton of goods can not be delivered at this stage, enterprises can still be waiting to issue. When there is little time left for price reduction, "price reduction can be made, but it is not necessary at this stage".

Secondly, the Indian market is bidding again. International news shows that India will hold a tender on June 26. The shipping date is tentatively scheduled for the beginning of August. Due to the recent price adjustment in the Indian market, although there is still some upside-down between domestic price and export price, the upside-down space is gradually shrinking. Some enterprises with cost advantage and high supply pressure are beginning to pay attention to export market, while the domestic urea practice of "every sign must rise" once again. Invading, in order to ensure the price of export market, the willingness of enterprises to bid is rising.

In summary, the actual demand for urea in China is not much at present. In view of the domestic and foreign market, the domestic urea price will remain stable at least in the short term, and the price will be adjusted after the printing is clearly marked.