According to the latest international news, the export middleman's offshore demand for large granular urea from Inner Mongolia is only US$282 per ton, which will be sent to Mexico soon. The offshore price of the middleman has risen to US$290 per ton. Considering the exchange rate of 6.9, the average port miscellaneous amount is 60 yuan per ton, the price of urea manufacturer from China to Tianjin Port and other major ports has risen to US$1865 per ton, minus the corresponding freight, that is me. The factory price of urea producers in China; roughly speaking, the factory price available for export has increased by about 50 yuan/ton.

Another news is that India is likely to issue a new round of urea procurement tender on June 26. The date of shipment is the end of August. If completed, it will be the fourth urea tender in India from the beginning of 2009 to the present. India is really short of urea, at least on the surface.

According to the statistics of China Fertilizer Network, the total urea export volume of our country has reached 235,000 tons (8.3+0.2+3+3+3+3+6) since the beginning of June. Considering the orders of more than 70,000 tons in the negotiations, the final total export volume is likely to be more than 300,000 tons.

All this points to the rising of urea factory price in China, especially the end of summer maize base fertilizer in North China, East China and Central China, the time of Topdressing and preparing fertilizer is coming, and the stocks of Topdressing and picking up fertilizer in Northeast and Northwest China are still in stock. Can the price of urea manufacturers rise in China? Can we really achieve price increases?

On the one hand, the temporary urea export situation is better, but the export still needs to wait for news of India's new tender. This week, the FOB price of large granular urea in Egypt and Indonesia has risen to US$287-295 per ton. Last week, India just released the news of a possible tender on June 26. The CIF price of India dropped from US$1/ton to US$292 per ton. Considering the freight cost of urea from China to India of about US$13 per ton, without considering the profit of intermediaries, the FOB price of US$280 per ton reflects the temporary situation of Urea Export in China. It is true that the export volume will not stop at these 300,000 tons, especially the low storage level of urea port in China (200,000 tons slightly higher). Once the delivery situation in India or Southeast Asia is better, it will help to digest the urea output in China, especially for the large granular urea which has entered the off-season demand.

However, it is worth mentioning that whenever India invites tenders, there will be fierce competition among international suppliers, and international prices will mostly cool down. The latter $280/ton FOB price is likely to be unsustainable. Considering that the demand for small granular urea has also entered the off-season in mid-July, China's urea export price may make concessions on the basis of the $280/ton FOB price in order to achieve better results in the bid printing. However, we also mentioned above that India is already the fourth tender. Less and more tactics will still be its main strategy. We hope that our urea industry will not lose its wife and give up its troops. Considering only the last peak season of summer fertilization, the export of 300,000 tons is not small, but the domestic price is not hot for the time being. Although temporary export will support the domestic price, the price increase depends on the real volume of transactions and needs close observation.

On the other hand, China's urea supply and demand situation is worse than expected. At present, the total daily output continues to reach 160,000 tons. The price of liquid ammonia is mainly weak. There are few maintenance plans in urea factories, and most of them are in July. Therefore, if there is no accident, the urea start-up will continue to be high. Recently, the production of high-nitrogen fertilizer in industrial compound fertilizer enterprises has basically ended, with an average start-up rate of less than 40% in large plants, a small increase in the receipts of industrial power plants and no improvement in industrial plywood plants. At present, the demand for urea for summer corn base fertilizer in agriculture has basically ended, and the time for top-dressing and fertilizer preparation is slightly earlier, while the time for top-dressing in Northeast and Northwest China is only about a week.

In short, it is feasible for urea producers to increase their prices because of their limited inventory so far. Especially, it is necessary and beneficial for them to raise the atmosphere slightly by 20-30 yuan. However, there are not many factories waiting to be shipped, and the price will be stable or fall slightly in the case of probability. If the rainfall situation in Central Plains is better, the time of fertilization in Northeast and Northwest China will be more stable. With a further delay, the number of successful bids will be more, and there may be a rise of about 50 yuan in the case of small probability. It is worth mentioning that the urea manufacturers are facing fierce competition in the field of outbound, and the outbound price is difficult to rise.