With the sweeping of harvesting activities in some main wheat producing areas, the summer fertilizer market has gradually quietly left. In the second half of the replenishment process, not only does the phenomenon of incremental demand not appear, but the situation of flat delivery is more common. Due to the pressure of cost and demand, the price of compound fertilizer in most regions has been loosened in varying degrees, which also increases the weak atmosphere of the market once again.

Ultimately, one of the main reasons for the price reduction is the downward fluctuation of urea market. At present, the price of urea in the mainstream areas has fallen more than 100 yuan/ton compared with the early start of summer fertilizer. It is also justifiable that the price of high nitrogen fertilizer has fallen steadily or steadily. However, the fertilizer market in autumn is not the same, although it is in a small off season for the time being, it is only partial. Sub-enterprises have begun to prepare for autumn fertilizer related issues, the mainstream price level and preferential policies will soon be clear.

First, price trends. Compared with previous years, the price of compound fertilizer has risen by different ranges in each season this year. According to the current raw material price, the cost of compound fertilizer is still higher than that of the same period last year. In autumn, the price of fertilizer or "high opening" is the main reason. However, the possibility of "low going" is very great, and the lack of demand is the biggest disadvantage. One reason is crop cultivation in the field. Low profit level, in order to minimize the cost of planting, grassroots units often choose lower-priced fertilizer brands. The second reason is that bad weather, such as drought and flood disasters, has increased the phenomenon of cropland yield reduction and crop rejection, and grass-roots planting enthusiasm has been greatly weakened. Thus, the price war is likely to hit. Immediate delivery.

Secondly, preferential policies. In order to further expand the market and attract customers to pay for orders, many enterprises will also issue various preferential policies, such as payment, interest accrual, warehousing subsidies, etc., while introducing new quarterly prices. With the continuous development of the market, in recent years, they have become more flexible and diverse. Compared with the traditional interest rebate, the introduction of explosives policy has gained widespread acceptance downstream, and the enthusiasm for procurement has also become high. The price of explosives is far below the mainstream level, which can not only alleviate the reserve pressure of distributors, but also help enterprises avoid the embarrassing situation of difficult shipment and make small profits and sell more. In addition, the price of explosives is sold out more, which reduces the possibility of changing the price at will.

Finally, the supply and demand situation. At the end of summer fertilizer production, the overall start-up rate of compound fertilizer enterprises has been reduced to about 40%, or the low level will be maintained until early July. Since the beginning of the year, the maximum start-up rate is around 58%, and during the autumn fertilizer production period, it is still the same, mainly because under the premise of normalization of environmental protection, there are still periodic inspection activities in part, which are still normal. Production has more or less an impact; the other is demand-led. As mentioned above, in the case of low food prices, frequent natural disasters and price wars, fertilizer demand in autumn will also show a trend of slow release, and the overall market process will continue to lag behind in previous quarters.

To sum up, urea prices do affect the trend of compound fertilizer market, but autumn fertilizer or no longer dominated by urea, so-called "demand is the absolute truth", specific market trends should also depend on the demand situation after the start.