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Urea speculation is up and down again, but it is difficult to close a deal.
Time:2019-07-04   Read:691second  

Last weekend, urea in Shandong and other places rose slightly, but in recent days, some areas began to decline slightly. At present, near the receiving price of urea for compound fertilizer enterprises in Linyi area, Shandong Province, 1960-1970 yuan (ton price, the same below), it is reported that India's fourth procurement tender of this year began to close on July 1, and the tender validity is up to July 8, and the ship date is August 16. 。 The speculation about the result of printing is mostly concentrated on the arrival of US$300 or slightly lower. Prices of urea in India rose before the opening of the tender. Industry insiders believe that speculation factors are strong. Although there are some transactions after the price increase, the overall demand is still unsatisfactory. In recent days, prices have fallen, only a small rise in individual areas, fertilizer has been swept away in summer. Layer demand decreases, urea quotation is expected to continue to decline.

From mid-June onwards, the demand for ammonium gradually improved. From the beginning of July, the price of ammonium powder did rise by 30-50 yuan. At present, the price of 55% ammonium powder from Hubei factory is around 2050 yuan, that of 55% ammonium powder from Sichuan factory is around 1980 yuan, and that of 55% ammonium powder from Yunnan enterprise is also increased by 50 yuan to 1950 yuan. It is reported that the actual turnover of enterprises has not risen for the time being, mostly to maintain the previous level. The actual acceptance of 55% ammonium powder in Hubei large factories is between 2200 and 2030 yuan, while the acceptance of individual low-end ammonium powder in small factories is between 1950 yuan or slightly higher. In Sichuan, 55% ammonium powder actually leaves the factory near 1900-1950 yuan in the earlier period, and some large orders are heard to be slightly lower than 1900 yuan.

_. The price of Monoammonium has risen, but the transaction is difficult to implement for the time being. So what is the actual situation of monoammonium?

_Demand has slightly weakened, and there are few gaps left in some enterprises in the later period. In recent days, the demand for monoammonium has slightly weakened compared with the earlier period. Although some compound fertilizer enterprises have purchasing intentions, the purchase has slowed down in the face of the suspension of orders from Hubei monoammonium plant. In addition, the raw materials purchased in the earlier period have not yet arrived at the plant. The new demand for monoammonium is not much in the near future. Some small and medium-sized compound fertilizer enterprises have purchased ammonium for autumn fertilizer in the first two weeks, but there is no new purchasing plan in the later period. Although some compound fertilizer enterprises haven't purchased ammonium yet, their purchasing volume is not very large in the short term. Demand for ammonium in the short term brought some negative results.

_Raw materials market is poor, the downward trend may continue. In the fourth week of June last year, there were about 1.65 million tons of sulphur deposits in the port, while in the same period of June this year, there were about 1.95 million tons of sulphur deposits in the port. It can be seen that the current stock of the port is large, the supply pressure is high, the negative atmosphere between the buyers and sellers of the port is strong, the downstream demand is weak, and the result of routine price adjustment of domestic resources is quite astonishing. The overall market of sulphur is depressed. The price of granular sulphur in the former Yangtze River Port dropped to 925 yuan, while the price of sulphur in Puguang Wanzhou Port and Dazhou Factory decreased by 20 yuan and 10 yuan to 950 yuan and 880 yuan respectively this week. The price of liquid ammonia continues to be low, mainly due to the conversion of some enterprises to liquid ammonia and the resumption of production of some shutdown enterprises. At present, the acceptance of liquid ammonia in Hubei has entered the warehouse with tickets at 2850-2880 yuan, which is about 300 yuan lower than the highest point last month. It can be seen that the cost support of raw materials for ammonium is insufficient.

_. Startup rate is temporarily low, but the long-term supply is expected to increase gradually. Recently, I heard that there were some minor accidents in the production of individual ammonium enterprises in Hubei. Some traders in the industry feared that this would bring about a new round of strict safety and environmental protection inspection, which would make the start-up rate of ammonium in Hubei decline, the supply of ammonium is tight, and the price rises. However, the author has verified that the plant is still in normal production and has not been affected for the time being. In the near future, some annual maintenance enterprises should gradually resume production, and the start-up rate will rise to a certain extent.

_Overall, there are many negative factors for ammonium monoammonium, the demand has been slightly weaker in the near future, the raw material market is also weak, the quotation of ammonium monoammonium is firm, the actual transaction is temporarily maintained at the earlier stage level, some industries hope that the demand for ammonium near July 20 may continue to improve, and the price of ammonium monoammonium is expected to rise slightly at that time.

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