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During the reporting period (July 3, 2019 to July 9, 2019), the power coal price index around the Bohai Sea closed at 578 yuan/ton, which was flat.
_From the calculation results of transaction prices of six ports around the Bohai Sea, we can see that in this reporting period, the number of specifications with rising prices was 1 out of 24 specifications, with an increase of 5 yuan per ton, and the number of specifications with flat prices was 23.
In this period, the power coal market around Bohai Sea continues to have two weak patterns of supply and demand. Port trade is light, and individual coal prices fluctuate in a small range. Breakthroughs in overall prices are hindered.
1. Inventory of power plants has reached a record high and the supply and demand pattern has been deeply shaped. On July 10, coal storage in the main coastal power plants of the six major power groups rose to 186.295 million tons, the highest level since the monitoring data of the Qinhuangdao Coal Network. This week, the rainwater is abundant in Jiangnan and South China, the temperature is low and the clean energy power generation is better. The original weak coal consumption has declined. The available days of coal storage cover up to a month. The end of consumption shows a pattern of loose supply, and the upward power of coal price is insufficient.
2. The market divergence has intensified and the port turnover has been weak. In the peak season, the seller's willingness to bid is strong, but the emotional drive is inadequate. High inventory is enough to absorb the short-term changes in demand. The buyer's bargaining purchasing is full of confidence. The divergence between the two sides on the market is increasing, and the actual port transaction is cold in the cycle.
3. The market demand is limited, and the role of Changxie coal price stabilization is prominent. High inventory restricts the overall demand of the market. The stable realization of Changxie Coal also reduces the purchasing space of coal in the market. With the rise of coal price in the early stage of the market, the advantages of the monthly Changxie price appear. Buyers prefer to fulfill the contract of Changxie, and the stabilizing effect of Changxie coal on the market is prominent.
4. Relevant indicators weakened first and market downturn expectations increased. First, the coastal shipping market capacity continues to be loose, long-term in the "ship search" market pattern, freight prices continue to fall, has approached historical lows. Secondly, the short position of Zhengzhou Coal's main contract was strong, reaching 580.6 on the morning of the 10th, expanding to more than 20 yuan/ton compared with spot discount. The weakness of the two leading indicators reflects the weakness of the market, and the downward expectation of the market in the peak season is enhanced.
On the coastal shipping market, the Ocean Coal Freight Index (OCFI) issued by Qinhuangdao Coal Trading Market shows that during this reporting period (July 3, 2019 to July 9, 2019), the domestic Ocean Coal Freight Index oscillated downward. On July 9, 2019, the freight index closed at 588.33, down 80.19 points, or 12%, compared with July 2.
On July 9, 2019, compared with July 2, 2019, the average coal tariff of 50,000-ton ships on Qinhuangdao-Guangzhou route dropped by 3.7 yuan/ton to 27 yuan/ton; the average coal tariff of 40,000-ton ships on Qinhuangdao-Shanghai route dropped by 41 yuan/ton to 17.6 yuan/ton; and the average coal tariff of 4-5,000-ton ships on Qinhuangdao-Jiangyin route decreased by 4.7 yuan/ton to 27 yuan/ton. The average price of coal for 10,000-ton ships is 19.0 yuan per ton, down 4.8 yuan per ton.
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