In Zengguang Xianwen, it is said that fighting tigers also requires brothers and fathers. However, potassium chloride and potassium sulfate, the two brothers'fertilizers, often run counter to each other. In the first month of the second half of the year, potassium chloride continued to decline slowly in the small off-season, while potassium sulfate stabilized for a long time and then started the small-rise mode again.

According to Zhongfei. com, at present, the mainstream price of 62% white potassium in the port is about 2250-2300 yuan (ton price, the same below). The actual turnover is not higher than 2250 yuan, and the bulk unit price has dropped to about 2200 yuan. The price of imported potassium chloride peaked in December last year, compared with the current price, the biggest drop in seven months was more than 300 yuan. According to the large contract CIF price of $290 and the latest exchange rate of 6.9, the current price has already stood on the rigid cost line after rebate, and has actually lost money. At the same time, the price situation of 60% Dahong granules is similar to that of white potassium, while the overall price of 60% red powder has already fallen below the cost line.

_Domestic potassium prices have gained some support because of the reduction in production, but the biggest drop in seven months has reached about 200 yuan. Although the new price of Salt Lake shares rose by 30 yuan in July, the agent's reaction was slightly "slow", and there was no way to do so. At the current price level, domestic potassium had little advantage over imported potassium, while imported potassium was still falling; even the decline of 60% of potassium in the previous big factories had not fallen several times. In recent days, 57% of the potassium powder in the next small factory has also appeared partial loosening, which shows the pressure of the potassium chloride market.

_From the above figure, we can see that potassium chloride gradually declines, but potassium sulfate has been relatively stable, and the price difference between the two has gradually expanded. In addition, this year's by-product hydrochloric acid market is better than the previous two years, especially the sales situation of 52% water-soluble powder is good, and the premium has increased. At present, most of the manufacturer of Mannheim potassium sulfate have a good profit.

According to Zhongfei. com, at present, Mannheim's 52% water-soluble powder mainstream factory quotes about 3050 yuan. Except for the northeast and other individual regions, the average transaction price of Shandong, Lianghe, Hubei, South China and Southwest China can reach about 3000 yuan. Recently, the quotations of some manufacturers in these regions have just risen to 3100 yuan. Prices are also rising, and even the 50% powder market, which was previously unavailable, is warming up. Meanwhile, the price increase of potassium sulfate in water-salt system has been brewing for a long time, and it is likely to wait for the good news of tobacco tender to come.

Potassium chloride is under a lot of pressure, but the market of potassium sulphate is better than that of potassium sulphate. The situation of the two brothers is just like the name of the song, "One Like Summer and One Like Autumn". Now it seems that under the enormous pressure of storage, potassium chloride will be difficult to improve for a moment and a half; potassium sulfate, supported by recent demand, late tobacco and export slip, is expected to rise slightly.

However, this year's fertilizer market, if anyone dares to gamble long-term, he is either a tiger or a tiger, or there is no "Shengwei" left only "tiger". It does not mean that there will be a reversal, but compared with the possible benefits, the risk is a little bigger. In a word, the author does not recommend a lot of stockpiling to be increased or long-term negative short-selling. Potassium chloride turnover opportunities lie in the reduction of domestic potassium production and the extension of large contracts. Potassium sulfate turnover may lie in the recovery of production and the increase of production capacity. As for the timing and extent of the occurrence and how to adjust the further operation, please continue to pay attention to China Chemical Fertilizer Network, N free analysis manuscripts per month, to escort you.