Recently, I heard the news that Sichuan No. 1 Ammonium Plant is going to stop production. It has been confirmed that Sichuan No. 1 Ammonium Plant has started full-line maintenance on the 15th and planned to stop production for 15 days. In addition to Sichuan, some of Hubei's shutdown enterprises have not resumed production in the near future. Only individual enterprises plan to resume production this week. It is rumored that several shutdown enterprises may face long-term shutdown or permanent shutdown. The author interviewed some of them and said that in the near future, enterprises are replacing boilers due to boiler failure, which consumes a lot of money and takes a specific start-up time. It is uncertain whether the shutdown will be permanent or not.

At present, the overall starting rate of Monoammonium is still at a low level, about 50%. The low supply of Monoammonium will bring some benefits. Is it possible for the price of Monoammonium to rise?

Look at the price of monoammonium first. In recent stage, the price of ammonium is strong after rising. The quotation of enterprises with false high quotation in the early stage is stable. In recent years, some actual transactions have increased slightly by 20-30 yuan (ton price, the same below) and temporarily stabilized. The quotation of enterprises with relatively low quotation in the early stage is stable after raising 30-50 yuan, and the price is stable after the transaction is raised by about 30 yuan in the early stage. At present, the actual acceptance of 55% ammonium powder in Hubei plant is 2000-2050 yuan, the actual acceptance of 58% ammonium powder in Hubei plant is about 2150 yuan, and that of 55% ammonium powder in Sichuan plant is 1900-1950 yuan. The turnover of above high-end prices is less. It can be seen that the transaction did not rise significantly compared with the previous period, that is 20-30 yuan/ton, and the downstream price acceptance of the rise is not high.

_Demand. It is still early to use fertilizer for winter wheat, and it will probably wait until October to start planting. Therefore, the time for preparing fertilizer is very abundant. Most Winter Wheat Fertilizer policies have not yet been formally promulgated, and downstream distributors are mostly on the lookout. Recently, the price of diammonium has continued to fall. Some distributors pay more attention to diammonium, but the actual purchase is also less. 。 Recently, the overall start-up rate of compound fertilizers has gradually increased slightly, but due to the early purchase of ammonium, and some enterprises have not yet all ammonium to the plant, a new purchase plan for ammonium is not much, wait and see, some enterprises wait for the latter ten days of Hubei ammonium plant to re-order and prepare for new purchase, later hard demand still exists. Demand should gradually pick up, but there may not be a large number of centralized purchases.

_Raw materials. In recent years, the price of sulphur has dropped considerably. This week, the price of sulphur has only recovered slightly, but the overall situation is still low. Particle sulphur in Yangtze River Port and Fangcheng Port has risen slightly from 10 yuan to 850 yuan in the same period last week. Particle sulphur in Puguang Wanzhou Port has risen slightly from 10 yuan to 880 yuan in the same period last week. Continued, it is expected that there will be no better support in the short term. The price of liquid ammonia has also risen slightly recently. This week, the acceptance price of the main stream of liquid ammonia in Hubei has risen by 30-40 yuan to 2840-2880 yuan, which is still at a low level. At the present stage, the situation of urea is not ideal, and the demand for liquid ammonia is weak. There should be no momentum for a sharp rise in the short term.

_To sum up, although the late hard demand still exists and the starting rate of Monoammonium is still at a low level, the recent demand and raw material cost are insufficient to support monoammonium. Fortunately, there is no greater pressure on monoammonium enterprises in the recent stage, so the price of Monoammonium is mainly stable after rising, and there is no risk of decline in the short term, and it is difficult to have a substantial increase.