At the beginning of September, in the early autumn, the demand of nitrogen fertilizer market was relatively general, but most urea mainstream areas had a higher willingness to increase recently, and even some enterprises began to explore the price level one after another: now the urea mainstream factory quotation in Shandong Province is 1770-1820 yuan (ton price, the same below), and the compound fertilizer enterprises in Linyi area are joining urea. The price of goods is 1820-1830 yuan, the price of main stream urea factory in Hebei is 1770-1820 yuan, the price of main stream urea factory in Henan is 1780-1790 yuan, the price of main stream urea factory in Shanxi is 1700-1710 yuan, and the price of big granule is 1710 yuan; even some enterprises in Xinjiang have suspended orders, and some enterprises in Xinjiang have indicated that they will plan to increase the quotation and the market will rise. The price wind is becoming more and more intense. When the demand for urea is flat, the price rises again. From the industry's point of view, the factors for this price increase are as follows:

First of all, there are more low-price transactions in the mainstream areas in the early stage. In this week, some large factories in Shandong Province completed more than 60,000 tons of low-price orders, while factories in Shanxi and Inner Mongolia and other places also had relatively large number of low-price orders to be issued. Enterprises had tight spot supply, relatively small supply pressure, and the overall price of enterprises had risen to a certain extent. On the one hand, it was to control the transaction of new orders, on the other hand, it also purchased for the earlier period. Urea traders backed up, and based on the current pending orders, there was no sign of a decline in the short-term quotation of the factory.

Second, the overall supply may be reduced. It is learned from the market that a new round of environmental protection inspection is about to start. Although there is no clear production restriction plan in various regions at present, the production restriction in Shanxi, Henan and other places has become a fact near October 1. In Xinjiang, due to the long-term operation of the equipment, in order to avoid risks, there is also a maintenance plan for the device in the near future. According to China's chemical fertilizer Net statistics show that the daily physical output of urea in China is 151,000 tons, and there is still a possibility of large contraction in the later stage of construction.

Thirdly, the tender announcement of light storage is made. On the morning of September 6, the winning enterprises of the fertilizer lean storage task in 2018/2019 completed the renewal of their signatures. It is reported that the validity period of the qualifications of the winning bidder for the chemical fertilizer lean storage task in 2019/2019 is 2 years. This renewal is aimed at the enterprises that have completed the storage task and passed the assessment in 2018/2019, with a total renewal of nearly 4 million tons. After the signing of this contract, the national fertilizer depletion storage will be reformed. In line with the psychology of speculation and the support of pending orders in hand, enterprises are willing to raise their quotations upwards.

Finally, the international market demand is gradually boosting. After the announcement of the tender information of 100,000 tons for each particle in Bangladesh, some domestic enterprises even raised their tender price. On the evening of September 6, India issued a new tender for the purchase of uncertain quantities of urea particles in size. On September 13, the tender price and tender quantities were announced. The shipping period was as of October 16. The validity period of the tender is unknown for the time being. If the usual practice is followed, the validity period of the tender will be up to 20 days. The Indian market is making renewed efforts and it is expected that domestic urea prices will continue to rise.

In summary, urea prices have been rising recently supported by the above points, but the domestic market demand is relatively poor, the possibility of high-end quotation is expected to be relatively low, and procurement still needs to be treated with some caution.