By the end of September, urea prices did not meet the expectations of the public and helplessly re-emerged after the rise and fall situation, Shandong Lianghe Shanxi, Jiangsu and Anhui factory quotations fell not much, the cumulative decline of 20-40 yuan/ton, transaction prices fell sharply! The receiving price of urea in Linyi Compound Fertilizer Plant dropped from 1860-1900 yuan/ton before the Mid-Autumn Festival to 1810-1820 yuan/ton on September 17, then rose slightly to about 1830 yuan/ton, and fell again to 1810-1820 yuan/ton by September 23.

The price of urea has been reversing again and again, so what should we do for the distributor who wants to take the goods for winter storage?

Cool salad! Hee-hee, make a joke. To return to the truth, this article will briefly analyze the urea winter storage market this year from the aspects of picking up the goods, when to pick up the goods and not preparing for the winter storage.

Suppose we have taken urea for winter storage, that is, when the price of the first two or three times "suspected bottom" was reached, what should we do? One way is to sell part of the product when the price rises and there is a certain profit. The other way is to slow down the resale or carry out a longer-term reserve for distributors who take goods near 1 700 yuan/ton of Shandong, 1 650 yuan/ton of Shanxi and 1 500 yuan/ton of Inner Mongolia. The premise is not to take into account storage costs, capital interest and so on.

_For distributors who are considering taking winter storage, Zhongfei's suggestion is that they can take small or moderate quantities of goods when they meet super-low prices or meet our psychological expectations. So when is the best time to store urea in winter? Which is the time point at which the next price bottoms?

First of all, we have to admit that the urea price trend in the second half of this year is totally different from the previous two years, neither rising all the way from late August to spring in 2017 nor rising all the way from early August to the end of November in 2018. The urea price trend in the second half of this year is mainly explored from the first rise in July to the decline in August-September. It rose three times. The pace of winter storage operation has been disrupted, unable to refer to the previous two years, after all, this year's supply and demand situation is different.

In terms of demand, it is well known that due to the poor economic environment, the demand for urea in domestic industrial plywood factories and power plants decreases again and again. In terms of industrial direct fertilization, the amount of urea directly applied is due to the substitution of high nitrogen compound fertilizer, formula fertilizer, nitrogen and potassium topdressing, extruded granular ammonium chloride and ammonium sulfate. Reduced, but direct fertilization or into a variety of compound fertilizers and then fertilization, the total return is the need for urea, industrial compound fertilizer plants on the demand for urea and price support is very strong.

On the supply side, a factory in Inner Mongolia has been put into operation since the end of 2018, a large factory in Shandong has increased its load since the middle of 2018, and a large factory in Shanxi has been fully loaded for a longer time since 2018. In the spring of 2019, the resumption time of urea production in Southwest Inner Mongolia is ahead of the previous year, and in view of the higher urea profit in these two years, Many factories are producing with high load, which makes the time of urea production reaching 150,000 tons or even more than 160,000 tons a day longer. Since April this year, urea production in China has basically been more than 150,000 tons a day (except in late August). Looking back on the previous daily production of more than 150,000 tons or in the spring of 2017 and 2016, the production of urea has continued to exceed 150,000 tons a day. Month and further ahead (at that time, the daily output was more than 160,000 tons or even as high as 200,000 tons). In short, urea has returned to a slightly oversupply, which is about to reach a more obvious oversupply, i.e. the need for exports to ease domestic pressures.

Secondly, the low price reduction of export volume makes the winter storage operation of our dealers more difficult. Export is a double-edged sword. When domestic and international prices are higher, export is the icing on the cake. When domestic and international prices are low, export is a blow. For example, the label that ended on September 13, which is 260 US dollars per ton offshore, and the price of urea from China to Yantai Port is as low as 1750 yuan per ton. The shortfall is that China's export volume of goods may be only 100,000 tons, the price and quantity are hit. After all, if the export situation is good, then the domestic inventory situation will be moderate, and the price is expected to rise significantly after the winter storage. Our distributors should consider increasing the quantity of winter storage appropriately when the export has improved markedly.

Thirdly, the best winter storage time, of course, can not be said to be the best time to pick up goods. First, before National Day 11, urea manufacturers need to consider the order and transportation situation of goods for more than half a month before and after National Day. They can pick up a small amount of goods at the time of low-cost purchase orders. Second, after the holidays, industrial demand. Or if export demand still lags behind, urea prices may have new lows. After all, by the end of October, the compound fertilizer enterprises will start to store and collect money in winter and produce fertilizer in winter. In November-December, according to the cold weather or not, according to the situation of civil coal and natural gas, the start-up of coal head, especially gas head urea enterprises will be limited to a certain extent, and the daily output of urea is expected to be less than 140,000 tons. Even 130,000 tons, urea prices are expected to rise to some extent.

Finally, in the general economic environment, urea prices can hardly rise dramatically, or will be repeated after the rise. As for winter storage, a small amount or an appropriate amount of goods can be taken, otherwise it will face greater risks.

For those distributors who are not ready for winter storage, Zhongfei net car should say that it is OK to store in winter. Considering the five-month storage fee from October to February next year, capital interest, whether urea cakes should be considered in a few areas and so on, take Shandong 1700-1800 yuan/ton as an example, what is the selling time next spring? Even if the factory reaches 2000 yuan/ton, it seems that there is not much profit. Moreover, from the previous supply and demand situation, it is difficult for urea prices to rise more than 200 yuan/ton or even 100 yuan/ton continuously. Therefore, for our distributors, a small amount of winter storage or not long-term winter storage is feasible.