In mid-late September, the shipment phase of fertilizer enterprises came to an end, and the sales of basic-level markets entered a peak season. With the marketization of chemical bulk commodities, the overall price trend can not form a certain rule compared with last year: whether as a regular passenger compound fertilizer for sale or ammonium phosphate for autumn high phosphorus fertilizer, the overall performance is unsatisfactory. Especially diammonium, at present 64% of diammonium delivered to North China has fallen to about 2450 yuan (ton price, the same below), even the foreign sales price of large traders has been lower than this, there is a certain upside-down phenomenon, and the recent price of urea as a vane of the fertilizer market has also suffered from the Han Dynasty. At present, urea ex-factory quotation in Shandong has been made. Back to 1780-1830 yuan, Linyi compound fertilizer enterprises received 1830 yuan for urea, rumors that low-end transaction has dropped to 1750 yuan or slightly lower, the mainstream urea ex-factory quotation in Hebei region 1780-1850 yuan, and the mainstream urea ex-factory quotation in Henan region 1770-1780 yuan, although some regions released the demand ahead of time due to environmental safety inspection and other issues. However, the overall price has not been pulled, the factory is eager to raise prices, while the downstream market is divided into a stronger wait-and-see, market stalemate is dominant, the recent urea price trend is divergent, comprehensive industry insiders have the following predictions:

Forecast 1: Urea may be on the rise before mid-October. Due to the recent demand increment of plywood factories in Shandong and other places, the urea price in Linyi area has stopped falling steadily, and the environmental protection and safety inspection is not only affected by the industrial market, but also the urea production plant is produced under high temperature and pressure. Although there is no definite production limit plan, urea enterprises or limited production in Shandong, Shanxi, Lianghe and other places have not yet been issued. On the other hand, with October approaching, the winter storage market will start soon. Whether it is the demand of compound fertilizer enterprises or agriculture, the purchasing power will increase, but after entering winter in previous years, the construction will go down, the supply pressure will decrease, and the price may rise.

Forecast 2, fatigue shows, trading or will gradually go down. At the present stage, the market demand in autumn is small, and even if there is demand, traders around the country have basically purchased, while the fall fertilizer supply orders and slab mills in the industrial sector are depressed, the overall volume of goods is poor, and the international market is relatively poor. The number of tenders in India is very small, while the price is about 100 dollars lower than the same period last year, and enterprises are slow. In order to relieve the pressure in the near future, it is relatively possible to absorb a low price.

Forecast three, fluctuation is the main factor, and price adjustment frequency is relatively high. Some industries believe that the current market demand is relatively weak, price offer or blindly reduce prices can not stimulate the enthusiasm of downstream market to make money. It is expected that enterprises will receive orders at low prices to support prices or will suddenly rise, so as to stimulate downstream picking up goods. To take a step back, even if there is no actual transaction, the waiting consumption is about the same. It's not harmful to adjust the price again.

In summary, due to the relatively poor market demand in the near future, the atmosphere of urea upstream and downstream game will continue for a period of time, and the pressure of enterprise sales will increase after entering 25 days. It is expected that the actual transaction price may show signs of decline, but the specific extent and the construction time of the bottom still need to pay attention to the recent start of the enterprise. Condition.