Compared with the boom of bio-fertilizers, special fertilizers and bio-pesticides, whether in the field market or in the business market, it seems that the most embarrassing thing now is compound fertilizer. Including compound fertilizer, the big chemical fertilizer now gives people the feeling that it will be a yellow flower tomorrow. It is out of breath. People don't pay much attention to it. There are even many people who say that compound fertilizer will be replaced.

In fact, apart from those enterprises with advantages in raw materials, most of the manufacturers and distributors of compound fertilizers are really depressed these years, and the market is really not good. Enterprises have no profits, sold nearly 1 million tons of compound fertilizer, the profit is only tens of millions; distributors do not make money, can not find the direction of development, the market vicious competition, selling a ton of sulfur-based compound fertilizer can not earn even 50 yuan; retailers, let alone, most of the mentality is to endure, one day is a day.

Not to die in silence, but to erupt in silence.

Is there really no spring for compound fertilizer? Not always! Under the strong influence of environmental protection and production restriction policies, the industry is undergoing rapid and strong integration. Perhaps, in the next two years, the compound fertilizer market is likely to queue up again.

_. Will the policy of "slag-based

Since 2018, Guizhou has implemented the environmental protection policy of "slag-based fixed production" in phosphate fertilizer enterprises in the whole province.

"Slag-based fixed production" refers to the ability of enterprises to deal with phosphogypsum to determine the production capacity of phosphate fertilizer enterprises. If enterprises can not make use of phosphogypsum resources, then production will be difficult. According to the "Opinions on Accelerating the Comprehensive Utilization of Phosphogypsum Resources" and "Plan for the Transformation and Upgrading of Phosphogypsum Chemical Industry in Guizhou Province" issued by Guizhou Province, for the exploitation of phosphate ore, it is clear that "fixed production with slag, fixed production with fixed production", and the comprehensive utilization of phosphogypsum should be increased in accordance with the goal of zero increment and reduction of stock. The environmental protection of Guizhou Province even includes the pollution control of phosphate mining and phosphorus chemical enterprises into the ten major pollution sources control projects of the provincial government in 2017, the provincial Party committee in 2018 and the provincial government, and Baogan, the Standing Committee of the provincial Party committee and the Secretary of the Guiyang municipal Party committee, is in charge.

In addition to Guizhou, what if the policy of "fixed production by slag" is implemented in Hubei, Sichuan, Yunnan and other major phosphate ore mining areas in China?

_According to the current technology and level of phosphogypsum utilization in the whole industry, if the "slag-based production" is really implemented, it will inevitably lead to a significant reduction in the domestic phosphate ore mining and phosphate fertilizer plant start-up rate, and the market supply of ammonium phosphate will reach an unprecedented tense stage. Some professionals pointed out that if this happened, it would be difficult for ammonium phosphate producers to supply large quantities of monoammonium phosphate and other products to the market, which would lead to a large number of small and medium-sized enterprises without resource reserve being out of stock, and the market price of fertilizer terminal would inevitably rise substantially.

_. The

_is not only the slag-based production of phosphate ore mining, but also the main raw material products of sulphur and synthetic ammonia industries. According to the current environmental protection situation, the situation that backward production capacity withdraws and production stops and restrictions continue to advance will inevitably accelerate, supply tends to be tight, and prices are expected to continue to rise will become normal.

Based on this, some professionals pointed out that similar to the integrated development of coal, steel and other industries, fertilizer industry, in the next five years will not rule out the current stage of windfall profits. In fact, the compound fertilizer industry is also in urgent need of a bottom rebound. In the past two years, the average profit margin of the industry can be said to be no lower, the cost of enterprises has been close to the limit, no lower.

At the same time, some experts have analyzed that because of the particularity of the industry, the industry chain is too long and the price is affected by too many factors, such as the import of raw materials, the different market positioning of the main raw material suppliers, the price of agricultural products and so on, even if there are windfall profits, it is only a stage.

_.

_High-quality development into KingdomWhether there will be a period of windfall profits in the industry or not, regardless of price changes. Behind all these phenomena is the fact that the industry concentration is increasing and the industry pattern is changing in depth, and the speed of integration is far faster than expected.

_Professor Yan Dong, senior industry expert and general manager of Qingdao Zhihe Zhituo Consulting Agency, said that the industry is undergoing two qualitative changes, from overcapacity to high-quality development, green development, high-quality development and quality improvement are the current mainstream of the industry; in the face of this situation, the level of production enterprises either has resource advantages. Or have technical advantages, otherwise it is difficult to survive in this round of integration.