As we all know, according to the usual practice, urea manufacturers need to receive orders for ten days or even half a month before the National Day. This year, the situation of the order battle is even more chaotic. A few manufacturers received orders for more than half a month at the lowest price slightly higher than the previous rounds, while a few others received orders for less than one day at the lowest price lower than the previous rounds. As for the orders before the National Day, the prices of Shanxi factories have risen two or three times by suspending the low-price collection. Of course, some factories are continuing to reduce their receipts either explicitly or implicitly.

It can be said that in the two short days of Monday and Tuesday, urea manufacturers'prices have achieved a new round of price bottoming rebound, switching from a big price drop to a stop-and-rise mode in an instant. What has happened in the process? How should our distributors deal with it? In this article, we will go to the details.

Firstly, on the eve of the National Day, which had been anticipated earlier, the urea start-up rate dropped dramatically. At present, the daily urea production has dropped from the previous peak of 158,000 tons to 138,000 tons on September 25. This year, the interval between the Mid-Autumn Festival and the National Day is relatively short. On the one hand, urea manufacturers need a large reduction in prices to receive orders for about half a month, and on the other hand, it coincides with the military parade on the Seventieth Anniversary of the founding of the People's Republic. Considering the air quality in special period, the urea manufacturers in Shandong, Shanxi and Henan Province have made great efforts to reduce production or overhaul, which is between 24 In just two days, it was completely realized, so a few manufacturers in Shanxi, Shaanxi and Shandong of Inner Mongolia were worried about collecting money from Monday. After collecting money through a large reduction in price, they have successfully switched to the stop-and-rise price since Tuesday.

Secondly, another sharp drop or secret drop in the bill of lading has brought our dealers a new feeling of price bottoming. It is logical to make a payment. In fact, it's still due to cost considerations. It's late autumn and coming into winter. Roughly speaking, the price of natural gas and coal will not go down obviously. Even if it needs to be guaranteed for civilian use, they will reduce and increase. Take Shandong as an example, considering the possibility that the ex-factory price will exceed 1700 yuan/ton, it's unlikely that the ex-factory price will exceed 1700 yuan/ton. It is really a smooth process for distributors or compound fertilizer enterprises to take orders again at a price slightly higher than that.

Thirdly, in terms of demand, there are autumn fertilizer preparation, winter storage production to be started, and Bangladesh and India standards. In order to avoid the possible concentrated demand in the later period, some compound fertilizer enterprises and distributors want to get the goods ahead of time. After the Eleventh anniversary, winter wheat will be sown in most areas, especially in the late October and later part of the compound fertilizer enterprises need to consider the production of winter storage fertilizer. At present, these enterprises are in the price of winter storage fertilizer, explosives emerge, waiting for the load enterprises to have a certain order, the fate of compound fertilizer enterprises and urea will begin. Bangladesh issued a supplementary tender for 100,000 tons of urea after the last tender, which was closed on October 7. Ethiopia's tender was postponed until September 30. As of January next year, India may have a shortfall of 2 million tons. New urea procurement tenders may be held in October, especially after October 16. All of these are doubtfully good. Urea manufacturers are reluctant to cut prices, or considering the price trend in the past three years, or expect to get a significant increase in prices in winter under the dual pull of a marked reduction in export and start-up rate, which is naturally difficult to reduce at present.

Finally, it has to be said that all of this has not fully taken into account the tight balance of urea supply and demand in the past two years, the supply is less than demand, and this year's supply is slightly relaxed or even slightly more than demand. The obvious increase in supply and the obvious decrease in domestic industrial demand are reflected in the last article in the edition: in terms of demand, it is well known that the poor economic environment has led to the reduction of urea demand in domestic industrial plywood factories and power plants, and the acceptance of urea or compound fertilizer by compound fertilizer enterprises. On the supply side, the daily output of urea in China since April of this year has been basically more than 150,000 tons (except in late August). In retrospect, the daily output of urea in China continued to be more than 150,000 tons in the spring of 2017 and in July and further ahead in 2016 (at that time, the daily output was more than 150,000 tons). More than 160,000 tons or even up to 200,000 tons

In short, for the rebound of urea prices before the National Day, our compound fertilizer enterprises and distributors need to be calm, not to use conventional thinking to judge the market, not to take large quantities of goods, some insiders said that this year's price trend may be similar to 2016, next spring and summer urea prices may fall below the cost line. Yes, so until next spring, we should be cautious about urea operation.