During the festival period, the urea market has two weak transactions. The production restriction of urea enterprises in Shanxi and other places has continued. Only the quotations of enterprises in individual regions have slightly declined. The main reason is that the number of orders during the festival period is small and the enterprises have reduced the price to absorb the quotations appropriately. The price of urea delivery is 1790-1800 yuan. Compound fertilizer enterprises purchase only sporadically. The price of urea mainstream ex-factory in the northern region rises to 1770-1830 yuan. The price of urea mainstream ex-factory in Henan region rises to 1760-1780 yuan. The price of urea mainstream ex-factory in Shanxi region is 1680 yuan, and the price of large granules is 1700-1730 yuan. Most urea enterprises in the above-mentioned mainstream areas are in the early stage of supply, and the new orders are generally closed, and the demand of industrial market is relative. Generally, the agricultural market demand in Jiangsu and other places still exists. Because of the continuation of production restriction, the demand during the festival is less. The price of urea in the market after the festival is geometric, which is rising or falling. The main points are as follows:

First, will supply resume as it was before? According to the monitoring of China Chemical Fertilizer Network at this stage, the daily physical output of urea in China is 138,000 tons, and its main limited production area is in Jincheng area of Shanxi Province. Although the specific strength of the second round of staggered peak production limit is not clear at this stage, the overall late start-up rate of urea should not be restored around October 10; on the other hand, the limited gas supply of gas enterprises in previous years, according to statistics, only in southern Xinjiang at this stage. At the end of this month, individual gas companies plan to enter the production shutdown stage, while other factories have not yet received the notice of production shutdown and production restriction. From the above points of view, the domestic market as a whole may start or recover after the festival, but it should not reach the peak in September in the short term. It is expected that the daily output after stabilization will be about 145,000 tons, and the overall supply pressure still exists.

Secondly, the overall demand of the market. The domestic autumn market will face the finishing stage after the middle of this month. In the later stage, the potential market demand for winter storage is large. In addition, it is rumored that India's demand gap for urea in this year's fertilizer year is still more than 2 million tons. It is expected to bid again in the middle of this month. However, according to the current international market supply situation, either a large number of goods at a low price, or a moderate amount at a middle price. Goods may boost the domestic urea market, but the overall range should not be large.

In summary, after National Day, the market demand in autumn is facing a tail-sweeping stage, the winter storage market is about to start, and urea industry, as the mainstream fertilizer in the fertilizer market, pays more attention to it. It is expected that after the festival, the enterprise can maintain a stable price for a period of time by relying on the pre-issue orders, but with the gradual increase of market supply in the latter period, the demand is temporarily on the premise of wait-and-see. Faced with the hype of the printed subject matter, the actual transaction price is afraid that it will be difficult to have a clear upward trend.