After the National Day holiday, the autumn fertilizer market formally entered the market sales period, the compound fertilizer enterprises began to slow down, and before the festival, some compound fertilizer enterprises issued winter storage quotation. Although the price is much lower than the previous winter storage quotation, but the market reaction is not ideal, the receipt situation is general, why this situation?

The main reason why the low price of winter storage of compound fertilizers was not accepted by the market in October was that the price of nitrogen, phosphorus and potassium fertilizers continued to decline. During the National Day, the mainstream quotation of small granular urea in Shandong Province had declined by 20-50 yuan/ton to 1780 yuan/ton. However, after the festival, urea market entered a stable period again, but recently the large single urea transaction in Inner Mongolia had been completed. The price of urea has dropped to 1520-1530 yuan/ton, and the price of urea in Shandong has also dropped to 1700-1740 yuan/ton, so the falling price of urea has once again hit the confidence of fertilizer reserve in the downstream winter storage. At the same time, the prices of Monoammonium and diammonium have also fallen to varying degrees after the festival. The quotation price of 55% ammonium powder has fallen to 1850 yuan/ton in Hubei, while the arrival price of 64% ammonium powder in northeastern China has fallen to about 2520 yuan/ton. Before the commodity has entered the period of sale, the distributors who hoarded goods in the early period have already lost money. So even if the compound fertilizer enterprises issue attractive winter storage report. Price, downstream is still indifferent.

In addition, the concept of winter storage is becoming weaker year by year, especially for the grass-roots units in Northeast China. At present, it is October, half a year before the use of fertilizer in April next year, and the Spring Festival is in January. There is still plenty of time to prepare fertilizer after the spring Festival, so the necessity of preparing fertilizer in advance is weakened again, especially the psychological negative of "price rise in the off-season and price fall in the peak season" for many years. Shadow still refuses to leave for a long time.

Another important factor is that the amount of grain subsidy decreases year by year. In mid-September, in Heilongjiang Province, the grain standard subsidy was issued in 2019: maize producer subsidy 30 yuan/mu, soybean producer subsidy 255 yuan/mu, rice producer subsidy 133 yuan/mu of surface water and 93 yuan/mu of groundwater. On the one hand, the reduction of grain subsidies and the frequent occurrence of disasters have reduced the enthusiasm of some downstream planting, so this year's fertilizer input in Northeast China will be lower than last year's.

All in all, to some extent, these factors indicate that the winter storage market of fertilizers in Northeast China will be very difficult. Limited by the large amount of diammonium leftovers and the low price, will there be "articles" for compound fertilizers and mixed fertilizers in the later period? Let's wait and see.