In mid-October, the autumn fertilizer market officially came to an end. Except for some lagging progress, most of the grass-roots retail sales will also come to an end. Overall, there is no surprise in this autumn's compound fertilizer market. Neither the price quotation nor the trading atmosphere has met expectations. The winter storage market is about to start on a large scale. The enterprise's pre-collection price and policy have attracted much attention. Although a few enterprises have issued sporadic quotations at present, the mainstream trend is still unclear.

If we have to predict the price of winter storage of compound fertilizers in different regions, we can only be pessimistic, which is one of the important reasons why enterprises have not been able to determine their pre-harvest prices. As we all know, as a substitute for compound fertilizer, the price of diammonium has more or less affected its price trend. Unexpectedly, the price of diammonium has fallen again and again since autumn. Domestic demand has been swept away, the export market is not good, and there is no expectation of turning over in the short term or temporarily. However, other negative factors are "countless".

First, the cost factor. Raw material cost has always been the key factor to determine the price of compound fertilizer market. The price of compound fertilizer has been at a relatively low level in the summer market so far, and the impact of raw material cost accounts for the majority. It is understood that up to now, the cost of pure raw materials for 45% sulfur-based universal series in the whole country is around 2010 yuan/ton, which is nearly 100 yuan lower than the same period last year. However, there is room for further reduction in the short term or in the future. Urea market volatility is the main factor, along with the increase of domestic production, it is doubtful whether the subsequent labeling can play a boosting role; the trading atmosphere of ammonium market is still depressed, continuing the low price throughout the autumn as if it has not yet found the driving force for recovery; the record-high Hong Kong stock and insufficient domestic demand make the price of potassium chloride continue to be under pressure.

Secondly, demand factors. Compared with the cost of raw materials, downstream demand has become another important factor dominating the compound fertilizer market. However, undertaking the autumn market, the demand for compound fertilizer during winter storage is still not optimistic. The first reason is that winter storage fertilizer will be sold next spring under normal circumstances. As a result, the market trend at that time is difficult to grasp, and the embarrassing situation of "off-season price rise, off-season price fall" often occurs. On the one hand, in order to avoid risks, appropriate reduction is justifiable. The second reason is that a series of unfavorable factors, such as poor purchasing power downstream, low crop prices and frequent natural disasters, lead to poor income of farmers, and distributors have difficulty in capital turnover, so they have to abandon winter storage activities.

Finally, supply factors. The compound fertilizer market is full of ups and downs, with few advantages. The supply tension, which is often hyped by people, is not convincing nowadays. During the National Day, Shandong, Hebei and other parts of the environmental protection pressure is heavier, once there was a shutdown, production restrictions. With the recovery of the post-festival market, the production situation of most enterprises has been at a normal level, and the pre-surplus inventory can fully meet the current and future market demand. Although the overall start-up rate of compound fertilizer enterprises is only about 40-50%, which seems to be a little low, the main reason is that the unrestricted output is still affected by the downstream demand. In order to alleviate the inventory pressure, enterprises can only do so. Actively reduce the load.

To sum up, a series of other unfavorable factors, such as the sharp fall of diammonium price, the hopeless rise of other raw materials and the worsening of supply and demand, may restrict the promotion of winter storage market. At present, the price of winter storage is only introduced sporadically. It is expected that with the gradual launching of dealer meetings in enterprises, the market of winter storage near the end of this month will be more clear.