Recently (October 7-11), China's fertilizer wholesale price composite index declined slightly. On October 14, China's fertilizer wholesale price composite index (cfci) was 2110.49 points, down 15.88 points, or 0.75% on a month on month basis; it was 193.22 points, or 8.39% on a year-on-year basis; it was 268.35 points, or 11.28% lower than the base period.

On October 14, China's composite fertilizer retail price index (CCRI) was 2478.00 points, up 16.55 points, or 0.67%; up 6.70 points, or 0.27%; up 31.29 points, or 2.51% over the base period.
Supply situation

In terms of nitrogen fertilizer, affected by high pressure of environmental protection and sluggish demand, the overall operating rate of urea enterprises declined to about 63%, 2 percentage points lower than that of the previous week; the operating rate of coal enterprises declined, while that of gas enterprises slightly increased. In terms of phosphate fertilizer, the overall operating rate of diammonium enterprises is about 66%, the same as the previous week. In terms of potash fertilizer, the arrival price of 60% of the base products in the powder crystal area of Salt Lake has been reduced by 50 yuan to 2200 yuan / ton; the port's potash inventory has increased to more than 3 million tons, resulting in a large inventory pressure; the supply of border trade potash has not been restored, and there is no available spot at present. In the aspect of compound fertilizer, the overall operating rate of the enterprise has not been improved, and the pressure of environmental protection and production restriction is still large.
Demand situation

In terms of nitrogen fertilizer, the market demand for urea is weak, with fewer new orders traded; agricultural demand is light; industrial demand has not improved, the operating rate of compound fertilizer enterprises has not increased, and the purchase demand for urea has not increased significantly; India has issued a new round of bidding, and the price of urea in China is still high, and the supporting role of Indian standard on domestic demand is still in doubt. In the aspect of phosphate fertilizer, the market of diammonium in autumn has entered the final stage, with few new orders traded; in the aspect of export, the inventory of India Pakistan diammonium is still high, and the export of China's diammonium is not smooth, but the price remains stable due to limited supply. In terms of potash fertilizer, the market demand for potash fertilizer is insufficient, and the Northeast market is opening slowly; the start-up of compound fertilizer enterprises has not picked up, and the demand for potash fertilizer procurement is light. In the aspect of compound fertilizer, the autumn fertilizer market has entered the final stage, with basic demand released and sporadic replenishment on demand; some enterprises hold a winter storage and order meeting, but the policy is not clear yet.

international market

The price of nitrogen fertilizer in the world generally declined. India issued a new round of urea bidding, but the international market did not respond to this. The international price of phosphate fertilizer is mainly sliding, the market demand is limited, and the export price of diammonium in China is stable. The price of international potash fertilizer is basically stable, the price in Brazil is rising, and the price in Southeast Asia is stable; there is no news about China's potash contract.

Forecast for future market

In terms of nitrogen fertilizer market, the operating rate of urea enterprises may slowly rise, and the current pressure of environmental protection and production restriction is still large; in terms of demand, there is no obvious positive factor, agricultural demand is in the off-season, and industrial demand is difficult to improve; in India, the price of urea in China is on the high side, and the export is still in suspense; in conclusion, it is expected that the price of urea will continue to be weak in the short term.

In terms of the phosphate fertilizer market, the supply of diammonium is stable; the demand shows a downward trend, the autumn market is closed, and the winter storage market has not yet opened; in conclusion, the price of diammonium is expected to continue to weaken in the short term. In terms of potash market, there is a large pressure on port potash inventory; in terms of demand, the operating rate of compound fertilizer enterprises is low, and the demand for potash fertilizer procurement is insufficient; in conclusion, it is expected that potash price will maintain a weak and stable trend in the short term.

In terms of compound fertilizer market, the current environmental protection pressure is not reduced, and the operation rate of compound fertilizer enterprises is difficult to improve; in terms of demand, the current market is alternating in autumn and winter, and the downstream replenishment is mainly based on demand; in terms of raw materials, the prices of urea, monoammonium and potassium fertilizers are weak, and the support for the cost of compound fertilizer is weak; in conclusion, it is expected that the price of compound fertilizer in Hefei will remain weak and stable in the short term.