Last week (October 14-18), domestic urea demand was not strong and the price was running at a low level. On October 21, China's urea wholesale price index (cnpi) was 1853.26 points, down 10.80 points, or 0.58% on a month on month basis; 196.01 points, or 12.00% on a year-on-year basis; 9.99 points, or 0.54% on a year-on-year basis.

on October 21, China urea retail price index (cnri) was 2003.34 points, down 14.18 points on a month-on-month basis, down 0.70%; down 131.90 points on a year-on-year basis, down 6.18%; up 98.38 points on a basis, up 5.16%.
   on October 21, China's Urea Export Price Index (cnei) was 1785.31 points, down 44.52 points on a month on month basis, down 2.43%; 134.33 points, down 7.00% on a year-on-year basis; 73.69 points, down 3.96% on a year-on-year basis.

Supply situation

In terms of raw materials, the market price of anthracite is basically stable at present, but near the winter coal consumption, the price of lump coal in the mining area has increased, and the price of other coal is basically stable; the market price of natural gas last week first continued the rapid rise trend in the early stage, and then fell.

Demand situation

In terms of agriculture, there is still a demand for fertilizer for domestic agriculture in autumn, but it is still weak, and the market price continues to fall. In terms of industry, after the national day, the start-up rate of rubber plate enterprises rebounded significantly, but the downstream demand of compound fertilizer enterprises was insufficient, and the start-up rate did not rise significantly. On the international side, India has purchased 1.1 million tons of goods in this bidding, and there is no obvious demand in other regions of the world.

   international market

 Last week, the FOB price of small-sized urea in the Black Sea fell by $2 / T compared with the low-end price, while the high-end price fell by $1 / T, to $228-232 / T; the FOB price of small-sized urea in the Baltic Sea rose by $2 / T, while the high-end price fell by $1 / T, to $224-235 / T; the FOB price of small-sized urea in the Middle East fell by $5 / T compared with the low-end and high-end prices, to $255-2. 60 USD / T; the FOB price of China's small particle urea fell 6 USD / T to 253-254 USD / T compared with the low-end and high-end prices.
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Domestic situation

Among them, 12 provinces and cities, including Tianjin, Jiangsu, Anhui, Fujian, Jiangxi, Henan, Guangdong, Chongqing, Sichuan, Shaanxi, Gansu and Xinjiang, saw a price cycle ratio drop of 6-50 yuan / ton, while the two provinces, Shanxi and Hubei, saw a price cycle ratio increase of 45 yuan / ton and 2.5 yuan / ton, respectively. Prices in the rest regions remained stable.
Future forecast

 On the export side, the demand in the international market is weak after bidding in India, and the price drops. The international price is lower than the domestic price. To sum up, it is expected that urea prices will maintain a downward trend in the near future, and attention should be paid to the autumn fertilizer market.