In recent years, a number of Monoammonium enterprises in Hubei Province, the main production area, have entered the maintenance period or are about to enter the maintenance period. Small and medium-sized enterprises have stopped production and large plants have been overhauled in rotation. The enterprises plan to resume production in the first ten days of November at the latest. So it seems that the operating rate of Monoammonium has declined, and monoammonium market has been saved?

In fact, I'm not so optimistic. First, the price of Monoammonium. The actual acceptance of 55% of powdered ammonium in Hubei Province is 1800-1850 yuan (ton price, the same below). Some of them can be guaranteed at the end of December at the latest. The factory price of 55% powdered ammonium of Sichuan Dachang is 1800 yuan. The actual factory price can still be discussed or guaranteed. In fact, 55% of powdered ammonium in Henan enterprises is also around 1800 yuan. The actual acceptance of 55% powdered ammonium in Shandong Province is 1950-2000 yuan. It is reported that 55% powdered ammonium of Yunnan Dachang in Northeast China will arrive at stations in Jilin and Liaoning at 2030-2050 yuan. It can be seen that although the price of Monoammonium is slower than that of the previous period, it keeps a downward trend.

Secondly, demand. In recent years, the market of compound fertilizer has been in a downturn, and the winter storage market has not been officially launched. Only a few compound fertilizer plants offer to the Northeast market at a low price, but the current collection situation is not ideal. It is also understood that some compound fertilizer plants, such as the southern Guangdong and Guangdong provinces, offer buyout prices at a low price. For example, the factory price of 45% chlorine based general purpose compound fertilizer is only 1850 yuan, which dealers call the lowest price in recent two years However, they do not have a large amount of reserves for the time being and only purchase in an appropriate amount. It can be seen that even though the price of compound fertilizer is low, the purchasing enthusiasm of the terminal market for compound fertilizer is not high temporarily. In the aspect of compound fertilizer enterprises, due to the start of heating in the north, the environmental protection and safety inspection in recent stage has been "returned", and the operation rate of compound fertilizer plants in Shandong and other places is still at a low level, and the attention to monoammonium is not high; the early autumn storage orders of Southern compound fertilizer plants have been basically completed, and they have entered into the off-season in the near future, with low operation rate, and there is still monoammonium inventory purchased in the early stage, with no intention of replenishment; Northeast China Although the regional compound plant has been started one after another, it is reported that the purchase of raw material monoammonium is still cautious and the quantity is not too large.

Again, on the supply side. It is true that the overall operating rate of Monoammonium has declined with the overhaul of Hubei enterprises, but according to the verification and careful study, it can be seen that the operating rate range of Hubei large-scale plants is not large, and the overhaul time of the overall overhaul enterprises is not long. For example, the author learned last week that a factory planned to overhaul until November 10, but this week that the enterprise has resumed production, and whether to overhaul again in the later stage remains to be considered. The author has learned from some insiders that some monoammonium enterprises may have some water in their maintenance plan, and the actual maintenance time still needs to be considered. In the same way, the stock pressure of Monoammonium enterprises is still large, especially the production enterprises of 55% powdered ammonium, which is said in the industry that the overall social stock of Monoammonium is also large, so it is difficult to save the overall market of Monoammonium for the time being due to the decline of operating rate.

Finally, the cost of raw materials. The overall price of liquid ammonia is still running at a low level. At present, the main acceptance price of Hubei liquid ammonia is 2750 yuan. Although the sulfur storage in the port has declined slightly in recent years, about 2.2 million tons, the storage in this port is still about 500000 tons more than the previous highest port. At present, the price of granular sulfur in ports such as Yangtze River port has dropped below 600 yuan, and the price of sulfur in Wanzhou port and Dazhou plant area of Puguang sulfur continues to drop to 620 yuan and 590 yuan. It is expected that there will be no big increase in the short term.