In November, the fertilizer market came to the last stage of the year, which is also the most critical winter storage period. In the past, when it comes to winter storage, the attention of both upstream and downstream sides is quite high. In recent years, with the weakening of winter storage awareness in various regions, the market heat has been greatly reduced, usually starting quietly and ending unhurriedly. At present, this winter's fertilizer market is in the starting stage.

It is common that lean storage market in each season lags behind. However, the development of lean storage of compound fertilizer is unprecedentedly slow this winter. The main reason is the weakness of raw materials, especially the poor urea market. In recent years, urea prices in various regions have been kept low, even lower than the cost line in some parts. It is heard that the factory price of small-sized urea in a factory in Shanxi is 1510 yuan / ton, although the domestic urea daily output is not high, However, there is no obvious positive support for the time being, and the international bidding is "far away", so the urea price is still likely to loosen in the future. Facing the increasingly bleak raw material market, the living space of the finished fertilizer is also compressed, but compared with the compound fertilizer, the future water-soluble fertilizer market is more worthy of expectation.

First, the cost of raw materials has not changed much. There are three kinds of raw materials for the production of traditional compound fertilizer: nitrogen, phosphorus and potassium. Urea nitrogen plays an important role in the production of traditional compound fertilizer. The long-term low price of urea not only causes the price of compound fertilizer to rise, but also restricts the market to move forward. The market of water-soluble fertilizer will not be greatly changed by the fluctuation of urea. The first reason is that the specification of raw materials for water-soluble fertilizer production is different from that of traditional fertilizer. The most important reason is that the water-soluble fertilizer is better, the natural price is relatively high, and the frequency of price adjustment is relatively low. The second reason is that due to the impact of environmental protection inspection, the local yellow phosphorus supply is tight, which directly promotes the price of potassium dihydrogen phosphate to rise sharply as water The important raw materials of soluble fertilizer also guarantee the relative stability of water-soluble fertilizer price.

Secondly, seasonal demand is about to release. During the winter, affected by the climate, the agricultural activities in most areas are basically in a state of stagnation, and the amount of fertilizer is reduced. While the cost of raw materials affects the price, the demand expectation in the short term also plays an important role in the price trend. Different from the traditional fertilizer, winter is the "small peak season" of water-soluble fertilizer demand. The first reason is that the field crops are rare in winter, and the economic crops account for a large proportion. The fertilizer demand is mainly water-soluble fertilizer, and the natural climate is higher than others. The second reason is that the use of new fertilizer can not only maximize the protection of crop growth needs, but also save time and labor, avoiding the use of traditional fertilizer The disadvantages.

Finally, the pressure of environmental protection in winter. Recently, the Ministry of ecological environment, together with relevant departments and local governments, released the action plan for comprehensive air pollution control in autumn and winter 2019-2020 in Beijing, Tianjin, Hebei and surrounding areas, which made overall arrangement and deployment for comprehensive air pollution control in autumn and winter in this year's Beijing, Tianjin, Hebei and surrounding areas, and proposed that Beijing, Tianjin, Hebei and surrounding areas should fully achieve the goal of environmental air quality improvement in 2019, in autumn and winter The average concentration of PM2.5 decreased by 4% year-on-year, and the days of severe and above pollution decreased by 6% year-on-year. It can be seen that, while avoiding "one size fits all", stage environmental protection pressure is inevitable. Under the condition that the overall good of fat city is not enough, supply shortage is inevitable to be regarded as the weight of firm price.

To sum up, there is a trend of "when the price of urea will rise and when the market will move". Once the urea market fails to recover in a short period of time, it indicates that the relevant links of winter storage will continue to push forward difficultly. However, for the water-soluble fertilizer in peak season, the impact is not great.