The main 2001 contract of urea futures recently fluctuated at about 1690 yuan / ton. So what is the price trend of urea futures in the later period?

Zheng exchange has determined 12 factory warehouses and 10 social warehouses as delivery warehouses for urea futures, and there is no premium or discount between them. There is no short charge and loading and unloading charge for the factory and warehouse, so the seller must give priority to the factory and warehouse as the delivery warehouse.

There are 4 urea delivery plants in Henan, 2 in Hebei, 3 in Shandong and 2 in Anhui. The basic feature of urea price trend over the years is that the ex factory price in Henan Province is generally lower than that in other three provinces, and that in Anhui Province is the highest. In line with the principle of maximizing interests, the seller will inevitably choose Henan factory warehouse as the delivery warehouse. Only when the delivery volume is large, the seller will choose Hebei, Shandong and Anhui as the delivery warehouse. Urea storage will generate corresponding costs, and the price of social warehouse is generally higher than that of local factory warehouse. Therefore, the delivery sources of social delivery warehouse must be mainly Shanxi, Inner Mongolia and Xinjiang.

Judging from the trading situation of many listed futures, the final real delivery volume is not large. Although a large number of urea futures may be delivered in the short term, the delivery volume will be smaller and smaller as the transaction matures. Therefore, in the long run, the price of urea futures market corresponds to that of Henan urea plant.

at present, the main factory price of urea in Henan is about 1600 yuan / ton, that in Shandong and Hebei is about 1650 yuan / ton, that in Anhui is about 1700 yuan / ton, while that in 2001 is about 1690 yuan / ton, higher than that in Henan, Hebei and Shandong, and lower than that in Anhui. Therefore, the author believes that this market price may be overestimated.

from the perspective of the spot market, the price of urea has not bottomed out. First, the downward pressure of coal price is large recently, which has insufficient support for the cost of urea; second, the situation of limited production of urea caused by the gas shortage has not appeared so far, and the natural gas supply is more relaxed than the previous two years. Third, there are serious droughts in Anhui, Jiangsu, Jiangxi and other places, and nearly ten million mu in Anhui alone is difficult to be planted in autumn The current fertilizer consumption and next year's top dressing will be affected; the fourth is the economic downturn, and the industrial demand for urea will be weakened; the fifth is that the international urea price will continue to decline, and the export situation is difficult to be optimistic; the sixth is that the dealers' enthusiasm for lean storage is very low, and the inventory pressure of urea production enterprises will continue to increase.

In conclusion, if there is a large number of delivery, then the futures price is basically reasonable; if the delivery volume is not large, then the price is seriously overvalued.