In December, a quiet winter storage market finally looked forward to some actions. The stagnant winter storage market ushered in a ray of sunshine. The urea price rebounded significantly. Since the end of November, the urea price has increased by 30-100 yuan / ton. Can this drive the whole winter storage market to a good development?

First of all, how long will urea prices rebound unexpectedly? Since the end of November, there has been a subtle change in urea market. At first, from Shanxi Province, the main factory price of urea in Shanxi Province was 1520-1530 yuan / ton. Up to now, the main factory price of urea in Shanxi Province has risen to 1620 yuan / ton, up to about 100 yuan / ton. The urea price in Inner Mongolia and other regions in Shaanxi Province has also risen. The main reason for the rise is that some compound fertilizers The purchase of enterprises and the low price of large-scale agricultural material distributors, followed by a slight shortage of local gas supply, recently the operating rate of urea enterprises fell, supported by many favorable factors, the urea price remained stable after a substantial increase, and local urea enterprises took the initiative to limit production, which is also an important reason for price stability, but how long can it be maintained? If there is no additional positive factor in the future, I'm afraid the maintenance time will not exceed half a month.

Secondly, does the rise of urea price drive the confidence of downstream fertilizer preparation? It has to be said that the price rise of urea is indeed an accident, so will it boost the confidence of downstream fertilizer preparation? Especially in the period when the winter storage progress of compound fertilizer enterprises has entered a stalemate stage, the rise of urea price has indeed shaken the wait-and-see mood of some downstream fertilizer preparation, but the winter storage progress in Northeast China is still not fast, on the contrary, some dealers in Shandong, Jiangsu and Lianghe regions are in a hurry, some of them have started to prepare a small amount of fertilizer, and the demand for wheat topdressing is about to start after the start of spring The price rise of secondary urea really drives the confidence of fertilizer preparation.

Thirdly, urea price went up, and ammonium chloride market also recovered. At the beginning of this week, the market downturn of ammonium chloride began to turn around. It's hard to find the low-end quotation source in Jiangsu. Although the enterprise's operating rate is high and the high price source is still hard to come out, the low-end products are very popular, which also adds to the tight atmosphere of fertilizer preparation in Jiangsu market.

Finally, the price of urea is rising this time. Of course, the happiest thing is that urea and nitrogen fertilizer enterprises and some urea raw materials have been stored in compound fertilizer enterprises. With the gradual arrival of the late winter, it is expected that the market demand will gradually pick up in the later period, especially after the spring, the demand gap in Northeast China is still large, but the recovery of compound fertilizer price still needs more favorable support.